Anticipation is mounting as Tanzania prepares for the 2025 General Election, especially given the controversies surrounding the 2020 election.
Following reforms to the National Electoral Commission and its rebranding as the Independent National Electoral Commission, coupled with President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s commitment to democracy through her 4Rs policy, my hopes are high for a fair and transparent electoral process.
As we head toward the general election, Zitto Zuberi Kabwe, former leader of the opposition ACT-Wazalendo party, has announced his intention to challenge incumbent President Samia, pending his party’s endorsement. Mr Kabwe believes it’s time for the ruling party to yield power to the opposition.
Buoyed by youth activism advocating for political reforms, Mr Kabwe sees an opportunity for ACT-Wazalendo to make history in Tanzanian politics. However, several factors cast doubt on his chances of winning the presidency in 2025.
If Mr Kabwe enters the race in the upcoming election, he will face incumbent Samia, who is set to represent CCM. President Samia, Tanzania’s first female president, has overseen a resurgence in democratic governance, dismantling constraints from her predecessor.
READ MORE: Conversation With Zitto Kabwe On Bipartisan Politics in Tanzania
She has improved freedom of speech and press, released political detainees, engaged with opposition figures, and revived critical media banned by her predecessor. Her decision to lift the ban on political assemblies in 2023 demonstrates her commitment to enhancing Tanzania’s global reputation.
Samia has earned popularity and trust among women and girls across Tanzania, inspiring them as a beacon of hope and a role model. Her leadership is seen as pivotal in Tanzania’s history, reinforcing the belief in women’s capability when trusted and believed in.
As the incumbent, President Samia boasts a record of achievements, including revitalising tourism, enacting political reforms, navigating international economic diplomacy, and completing flagship projects. Her association with the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) promises continuity and stability, contrasting with uncertainties around opposition candidates.
In contrast, Mr Kabwe faces the challenge of presenting promises amid President Samia’s tangible accomplishments and pragmatic strategies.
Since multiparty elections began, it has been rare for an opposition party to manage to challenge CCM for more than two presidential elections, a challenge currently facing the opposition party CHADEMA, which was at its peak during the 2015 general election. ACT-Wazalendo stands poised as a potential alternative to CCM, particularly if CHADEMA falters by 2025.
READ MORE: Zitto Kabwe: Tanzania’s Main Problem Is Political Immaturity
With a strong presence in Zanzibar and several Tanzania Mainland regions, ACT-Wazalendo could secure significant parliamentary seats in 2025, establishing them as the leading opposition caucus in parliament.
It would be wise for Mr Kabwe to run for a parliamentary seat, as his experience in parliament could enhance the party’s influence and popularity, crucial for future elections and national politics in general.
Historically, parliament has been instrumental for political parties, especially those in opposition, in nurturing prominent politicians and gaining public confidence.
Running a nationwide campaign demands substantial resources, an advantage currently held by CCM. Mr Kabwe’s party relies on subsidies, member contributions, donations, and support from allied parties, raising questions about funding adequacy compared to CCM.
ACT-Wazalendo must defend its stronghold of Kigoma, which requires effective leadership and financial backing. Kabwe’s strategic decision to contest the presidency or secure a parliamentary seat in Kigoma will influence party tactics.
READ MORE: Zitto Kabwe on Public Enterprises in Tanzania and Their Prospects: ‘Public Sector Must Deliver’
Timing is critical in politics, affecting policy introduction, negotiations, and decisions. As the election approaches, unforeseen events could reshape Tanzania’s political landscape.
In conclusion, Tanzania’s 2025 election promises to be transformative, with President Samia’s incumbency and Kabwe’s opposition challenge shaping the political narrative. As the campaign unfolds, timing, resources, and public sentiment will determine the outcome, influencing Tanzania’s future trajectory.
Erick Mwakyendenge is a political analyst focusing on politics in Africa, the U.S., and the Middle East. He is available at erickgyabo1@gmail.com or on X as @Erick_Gyabo. These are the writer’s own opinions, and they do not necessarily represent the viewpoint of The Chanzo. Do you want to publish in this space? Contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com for further inquiries.
One Response
This sounds more like an endorsement of President Samia than a discussion of reasons why Zitto should not run. While I concur that Zitto might need to rethink which post he vies for, I’m not too fond of the free card given to CCM regardless of the ills caused by its administration.