President Donald J. Trump was inaugurated on Monday, January 20, 2025, as the 47th President of the United States of America. He unleashed his administration by signing more than 20 executive orders only on the first day of his inauguration. The number will likely rise during his four-year tenure.
One of the executive orders was withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement. This is President Trump’s second time pulling the U.S. out of the treaty. Other executive orders signed on the day that are likely to slow global climate action include the “90-day pause in U.S. foreign development assistance” and “termination of the New Green Deal.”
Much as this kind of move was expected, it still shook the world, given the critical role of the U.S. in limiting global temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2030. The U.S. ranks as the second largest emitter, just after China, with an annual emission rate of 6,0000 metric million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents.
It has the highest cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in history since 1850 and the highest per capita emission of 16 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents, sixteen times more than the African average.
For the world to reach the 1.5C goal, leading emitters are the most responsible for cutting down their emissions to keep global temperatures from rising. Also, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) “common but differentiated responsibilities” principle requires developed countries to take the lead in providing financial assistance to developing countries for climate action.
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Developing countries will need between US$1.5 and 2.4 trillion annually by 2030. The U.S. is the fifth largest donor, with up to US$4.1 billion in ODA committed to climate action. At COP28 in Dubai, for instance, the U.S. committed about US$3 billion to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and another US$18 million to the Loss and Damage Fund.
Both were expected to commence in 2024. However, such multilateral climate funds constitute less than 10 per cent of total climate finance, so the U.S. exit should not be a cause for alarm.
Tanzania’s climate mitigation efforts through its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) are estimated to cost US$19.2 billion. The country expects to mobilise part of this funding from existing finance sources like bilateral and multilateral funds and banks.
Mitigation funds that Tanzania needs for her NDC will very likely come from multilateral development banks, which are, so far, the largest climate financiers. So, there are still many climate financing prospects even as the U.S. has pulled out. It should also be emphasised that the U.S. is only leaving the Paris Treaty but is still part of the UNFCCC and thus has obligations to fulfil.
Some alarm
Bilateral climate financing, which entails climate financing directly from the U.S. to recipient countries, probably warrants some alarm. The 90-day pause in foreign development assistance programmes may halt and end some or all the new obligations and disbursements the US has recently committed to.
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For instance, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in Tanzania is providing funding to about five projects in different implementation phases that focus on the Natural Resources Management portfolio, worth around US$98 million.
Freezing assistance on these projects may substantially adversely impact Tanzania’s natural resource conservation and climate action goals. However, the magnitude of this order and what specific programmes will be affected will be clear when the 90-day freeze lapses.
Some of the commitments already made, such as the US$4 billion committed by the Biden Administration to GCF, will not likely be stopped. Also, cutting other international climate finance may require approval from Congress, which does not always work in Trump’s way, as was witnessed in his previous administration.
Therefore, much as the recent development should not worry us, it serves as a reminder for developing countries like Tanzania to increasingly integrate climate change into their development agenda rather than treating it as an emergency for which aid becomes inevitable.
This is a key step to graduating from the ‘climate aid’ aura and forging homegrown solutions that our resources can fund.
Dr Ronald B. Ndesanjo is a climate, environment and sustainability expert with the Ecotan Consult (T) Ltd. He can be reached at ndesanjo@ecotanconsult.co.tz or on X as @ronaldndesanjo. The opinions expressed here are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Chanzo. If you are interested in publishing in this space, please contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com.
