Dar es Salaam – A presidential commission investigating the deadly violence that marred Tanzania’s October 2025 general election has concluded that the unrest was a coordinated effort to disrupt the polls, a finding immediately rejected by opposition parties, who dismissed the entire process as a government cover-up.

After a 153-day investigation, a nine-member commission presented its final report to President Samia Suluhu Hassan on April 23, 2026, at the State House in Dar es Salaam. 

The inquiry was established to investigate the events surrounding the October 29, 2025, general election, which was boycotted by the main opposition party, CHADEMA, and descended into nationwide violence.

The unrest, which coincided with election day, was met with a heavy-handed response from security forces, including the use of live ammunition. The period was also marked by a nationwide internet shutdown and a stay-at-home order that lasted for almost a week.

Findings

The commission, chaired by retired Chief Justice Mohamed Chande Othman, gathered evidence from 63,603 citizens across 11 regions. Its most significant conclusion was that the events of October 29 did not qualify as peaceful protests under national or international law.

Chairman Chande reported that the violence was planned, coordinated, financed, and executed by trained individuals. 

He stated that coordinators recruited vulnerable groups, including street children and motorcycle taxi riders, paying them between Sh10,000 and Sh50,000 to participate in simultaneous attacks designed to overwhelm security forces.

The human cost detailed in the report was severe. The commission confirmed 518 deaths, comprising 502 civilians and 16 security personnel. 

The fatalities included 21 children, with the Dar es Salaam region recording the highest number of deaths at 182. Post-mortem examinations on 260 bodies revealed that many died from penetrating wounds caused by sharp objects or fractures.

The report identified five root causes of the violence: demands for a new constitution, economic hardship, moral decay, abductions and disappearances, poor performance by local government officials, and foreign interference. 

It also highlighted the role of social media and inflammatory political rhetoric as primary catalysts.

Unanswered questions

Whilst the executive summary provided extensive statistical data, Chairman Chande’s public address left several critical questions unanswered. 

While the presentation alleged planning and coordination, it did not, for instance, identify the specific individuals or organisations that planned, coordinated, and financed the violence. Furthermore, it left questions on if the government had any blame to take for the incidents.

It remains unclear if these crucial details, along with specific recommendations for prosecutions, are contained within the full, unpublished report presented to the President.

Receiving the report, President Samia acknowledged the gravity of the findings, admitting that the events “shook our nation.” She defended the actions of the security forces, suggesting that without their intervention, the country would have faced a much worse fate.

“If those riots had not been controlled, the country would have suffered a much greater disaster, and it would have taken us many years to rise again,” the Head of State explained during a function that was also attended by members of Tanzania’s diplomatic community.

She also addressed the issue of missing persons, noting that police statistics showed 758 people were reported missing between 2023 and 2025, with 245 still unaccounted for. She promised that the government would continue its investigation into these cases.

Opposition rejection

The two main opposition parties, CHADEMA and ACT-Wazalendo, which had boycotted the commission from its inception, immediately rejected the report. 

They argued that a government accused of electoral fraud and human rights abuses lacks the moral authority to investigate itself.

In a public statement, CHADEMA reiterated its position that the commission was invalid because President Samia, whom they accuse of lacking political legitimacy, cannot establish a body to investigate crimes allegedly committed under her administration.

“This is not an independent commission; it is a mechanism to conceal the truth, erase evidence, and perpetuate harm against victims,” the opposition party said in an X post.

The party highlighted that all nine commission members are either current or former government officials affiliated with the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party. 

CHADEMA argued that it is fundamentally untenable for an accused party to investigate itself.

ACT-Wazalendo echoed these sentiments, stating that true healing and national reconciliation can only be achieved through an independent, credible, and transparent investigation. 

Both parties renewed their calls for an international inquiry under the auspices of the United Nations, the African Union, or SADC.

What follows now?

With the investigation formally concluded, the focus now shifts to the government’s implementation of the commission’s recommendations. 

President Samia indicated that the findings will inform the agenda of a promised Reconciliation Commission and guide future constitutional reforms, which she identified as a priority for her second term.

However, the opposition’s outright rejection of the report suggests that the political impasse will continue. CHADEMA has announced it will issue a comprehensive official position following its Central Committee meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026.

Meanwhile, the international community, which recently sent high-level delegations to monitor the situation—including a UN envoy, an African Union special envoy, and a delegation from the African Women Leaders Network—will be watching closely to see if the unpublished full report leads to genuine accountability or further deepens the nation’s political divide.