Observers of Tanzania’s political developments are growing concerned about the long-term implications of the ongoing infighting within CHADEMA, the country’s main opposition party, resulting from its intraparty elections for its national leaders and heads of its various party wings scheduled for January 21, 2025.
Races within the centre-right political party, especially the one concerning party chairmanship, have laid bare deep fissures that party leadership has tried for months to hide from public view, leading some to ponder the question of CHADEMA’s post-election future and its status as an opposition force in its own right.
The centre of all attention, and, for that matter, fear, is the apparent contention between current party chairperson Freeman Mbowe and his deputy for Tanzania Mainland Tundu Lissu. The two are both running for the party chairmanship and continue to exchange bitter words publicly, which many interpret as sowing divisions and disunity within the party.
Bone of contention
Besides accusations and counter-accusations traded between the two and their respective camps, the whole saga can be narrowed down to their failure to agree on who should run for the party chairmanship and for president in the 2025 elections on CHADEMA’s ticket and the failure of efforts to mediate them.
During his recent wide-ranging, two-part interview with Crown Media, Mbowe implied that Lissu’s “surprising” announcement to run for party chairperson was against their earlier discussion that he would run for the deputy chairperson position. Mbowe, though not explicitly, suggested that there existed a gentlemen’s agreement between the two that Lissu would not run for party chairmanship.
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However, in response to this specific charge, Mr Lissu told a brief press conference on January 6, 2025, that Mr Mbowe was “lying.” Then Lissu revealed that he and Mr Mbowe were mediated for three days on who should run for party chairmanship and president on CHADEMA’s ticket lest their intentions to run for the same position divide the party.
“In all three days, chairperson [Mbowe] said he hadn’t decided whether he’ll run for any position,” Mr Lissu said. “For three days! [CHADEMA’s] secretary-general John Mnyika was present at the meeting; he can testify. [Mbowe] didn’t want me to declare my intention to run, but when asked what his plan was, he responded that he hadn’t made up his mind.”
On December 12, 2024, Mr Lissu announced his candidacy for party chairmanship, cancelling his earlier plan to run for the position of CHADEMA deputy chairperson (Tanzania Mainland). Mr Mbowe followed him on December 21, 2024, pegging his candidacy on some “unfinished businesses” within the party he wanted to take care of.
The two have also publicly traded blame, giving the impression that all gloves are now off regarding the race for leadership within CHADEMA. Mbowe has criticised Lissu for his alleged lack of “humility” and his “bigger-than-life” mentality. He has said he’s not afraid of Lissu, warning him against believing that he’s bigger than the institution he represents.
“You may find that you give yourself personal glorification, that you’re so important, you even forget that you’re someone’s deputy and not party chairperson,” Mr Mbowe said in his Crown Media interview. “There’s no co-chairperson in our party. There is a chairperson and a deputy chairperson.”
On his hand, Lissu has accused Mbowe of “clinging” to power for too long, telling BBC Swahili in an interview that his intention to run for party chairmanship is motivated by his desire to save Mbowe from Mugabe syndrome after former Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe who ruled the southern African state for 40 years before he was toppled.
“Chairperson Mbowe has been a chairperson for 21 years,” Lissu says in the interview. “So, if the conversion is about saving the party, the saviour cannot be someone who has led the party for 21 years. It has to be someone else. If the intention is indeed to bring about changes within the party.”
Risks ahead
As the election approaches, the exchange between the two senior CHADEMA leaders appears to be veering off issue-based campaigning to personal attacks against one another and between their respective camps, threatening to put the party in disarray.
Against this backdrop, some are worried that developments within CHADEMA will turn out disastrously if the situation is not controlled and adequately managed between now and the election and even after.
Intraparty elections and similar democratic practices shouldn’t necessarily threaten a particular party’s unity and survival. However, as seasoned journalist and analyst Ezekiel Kamwaga told this publication, many political parties in Tanzania do not have strong democratic institutions that would allow them to extract the best, instead of the worst, from the practice.
READ MORE: Is CHADEMA Falling into the Authoritarian Trap?
That’s why it is not very surprising to find that the main reason for the weakening of many political parties in Tanzania is the fighting for leadership positions within the parties, resulting in Tanzania having different major and leading opposition parties from time to time.
It is the chief reason, among many others, for the weakening of NCCR-Mageuzi. In its heyday, the party posed a serious opposition to the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM). In the 1995 general election, which followed the reintroduction of political pluralism in Tanzania, NCCR-Mageuzi forced CCM to the brink of losing power, leaving a lasting lesson that other opposition parties continued to benefit from.
The Civic United Front (CUF) replaced NCCR-Mageuzi and dominated Tanzania’s politics for over a decade. Its current state, which is unsatisfactory in the eyes of many observers, is partly due to internal leadership struggles that culminated in its division between chairperson Ibrahim Lipumba and secretary-general Seif Sharif Hamad and their respective factions.
Notably, current developments within CHADEMA coincide with the fast-rising of a new political party, ACT Wazalendo. Emerging third in the 2024 local government elections, in which CCM won by 99.9 per cent and was followed by CHADEMA, some observers do not have much difficulty musing that history will soon repeat itself should CHADEMA not treat its current path carefully.
ACT Wazalendo witnessed a meteoric rise in 2019 when Mr Hamad defected to the party with all his followers following years of leadership struggles with CUF. While it cannot admit it publicly, ACT Wazalendo stands to benefit in either form from CHADEMA’s possible ruptures.
Way forward
CHADEMA could’ve properly managed its internal elections to avoid the worst outcome, including ensuring that the mediation efforts that Mr Lissu hinted at worked out as planned. That that didn’t happen doesn’t mean that the party has lost its ability to dodge the storm many are anticipating, analysts told this publication.
Most analysts were almost unanimous in their conclusion that the only way CHADEMA could sail safely out of the turbulent waters it currently swims in is to let democracy take its due course by ensuring that elections occur in a free and fair environment and allowing party members to express their democratic will meaningfully.
If democracy takes its course, and elections within CHADEMA pass the test of credibility in the eyes of its candidates, members and the public, analysts believe that the party might defeat the forces attempting to put it in the dustbin of history and emerge from the elections stronger and united.
The opposite, sadly, is also true!
Additional reporting by Jackline Kuwanda.
