Often, if not always, within Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), when a leader in power reaches the time to retire, it becomes difficult for them to directly control who will be their successor. This began with Julius Nyerere. It was no secret that Nyerere’s preferred choice was Salim Ahmed Salim; however, in one way or another, the group supporting the late Ali Hassan Mwinyi managed to outmaneuver Nyerere.
However, it has also become common for a retired leader of the party to be an important link in deciding the presidential candidate, who is also the expected leader of the party. This was observed in 1995, during the selection of Mwinyi’s successor, where retired Nyerere placed significant weight on the selection of Benjamin Mkapa.
It was also evident in the 2015 election, where retired Benjamin William Mkapa is mentioned as having played a key role in the selection of John Pombe Magufuli. It is clear to many that Magufuli was not the first choice of the sitting leader at the time, Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete. But it is also an undeniable fact that retired Kikwete was an important link in the second-phase election of President Samia Suluhu Hassan.
So, it appears there is an unwritten rule shaped by circumstances: the one in power does not always get what they desire, while the retired leader becomes a key factor in determining the successor or future direction. And if we reflect from Nyerere’s first phase, we can see that it was not necessarily a bad thing—Nyerere’s failure to impose his preference was a clear demonstration that the party was not a one-man project.
The Fate of CCM
In recent days, we have seen a debate emerging within Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) regarding the future of the party toward 2030. The party’s Vice Chairman, Stephen Wasira, warned those discussing the 2030 presidency, linking such discussions to divisions within the party. On the other hand, Paul Makonda has stated that those positioning themselves within CCM will not be able to secure the presidency, associating these unknown figures with betrayal against President Samia Suluhu Hassan.
Personally, I struggled a lot trying to reflect on what exactly happened in March 2026 that caused CCM members to become so stirred up about the party’s leadership future in 2030. To most people the main conversation is still the events of October 29 and successive steps afterwards.
After reflection it hit me that the major event that also occurred this month was the event marking the fifth anniversary of the death of John Pombe Magufuli . I can say that for the first time since his passing, his supporters were able to commemorate him without being pulled back by heated debate against him, there were discussion here and there but not like it was in previous years.
Many people took part the commemoration, including top government leaders led by Vice President Emmanuel Nchimbi, along with other prominent figures such as Ridhiwani Kikwete and Dotto Biteko, as well as various leaders who worked with President Magufuli. I believe this event acted like a “switch” that ignited the debate within CCM, and I will explain further.
If we examine the centers of influence within CCM, the name Magufuli holds a unique position. For many Tanzanians, Magufuli has two faces: there are those who see him as a bold leader who genuinely cared for low-income Tanzanians—who, if we are honest, make up about 80% of the population. But there are also those who see him as a harsh leader who was a beginning of a serious political crisis in the country.
In my opinion, I believe there is enough evidence that both of these perspectives are valid. Magufuli’s good side was outstanding, and his dark side was very dark.
It is impossible to disparage Magufuli’s legacy to the Morogoro farmers who were granted land after escaping exploitative systems. He remains a hero to the small traders, street hawkers, and ‘boda boda’ riders. His boldness in launching the SGR and reclaiming Tanzania’s mineral wealth still remains in people’s mind.
However, we cannot ignore the fact that fabricated cases were a modus operandi of his leadership, and that taxes and laws were often used as tools of control. Additionally, the presence of unknown assailants who abducted, disappeared, and assassinated—or attempted to assassinate—individuals increased during his tenure.
Nevertheless, issues such as abductions and enforced disappearances have become even more prevalent after John Pombe Magufuli’s death.
Centers of Influence within CCM
After the death of John Pombe Magufuli, many of those who had disagreed with his leadership, made efforts to ensure that the country would not return to practices that were fundamentally unhealthy for the nation.
For example, when the idea of building a statue in his honor emerged, it sparked intense public backlash. There was a strong push to preserve an accurate historical record, and many activists and political parties—and eventually even Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM)—came to acknowledge that the situation had been problematic and should not be repeated.
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In opposing Magufuli, there was also a clear reality that, on the other hand, he had significant influence among many people. These two opposing forces enabled the new leadership to find space to chart its own path; otherwise, it might have found itself captive to Magufuli’s legacy.
Now we are in 2026. To a large extent, many observers have concluded that after October 29, the problems we face are greater than at any point in our country’s history. It is a waste of time—and even hypocrisy—to continue blaming Magufuli, who passed away five years ago. As this opposing force has faded, or occupied with a more pressing task, we now see Magufuli’s supporters and admirers gaining renewed energy to honor him.
What is different from other recent historical legacies aside from the Tanzania founding President, is that Magufuli is being transformed into an ideology.
That is why it was striking to see someone like Luhaga Mpina, who defected from CCM and become a key opposing figure in ACT Wazalendo, but during his defection and all his activities under his ne party, he was always surrounded with aides who were wearing uniforms bearing Magufuli’s image—while he himself was the only one wearing ACT Wazalendo attire. And to CCM and in recent politics, the influence of Magufuli to ordinary citizens remains unmatched.
The main barrier that had previously limited John Pombe Magufuli’s posthumous influence was the external opposition to his leadership. However, many of those same groups who opposed his legacy, have now come to recognize that, after October 29, the challenges that have emerged are almost existential to the state of democracy and republicanism in our country. As a result, addressing Magufuli’s legacy is no longer seen as the most pressing priority.
For his supporters, however, there is no better moment than this—they see the conditions as having aligned in their favor. This is why March 17 of this year felt like a political regrouping for Magufuli loyalists and others seeking to align themselves with the movement.
If we examine the centers of influence within CCM, we begin with President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who oversees state institutions. Then comes former President Jakaya Kikwete, who for a long time was widely popular in Tanzania—meaning his influence extended both within and outside CCM. However, he has entered into a broader conflict with actors outside CCM since 2025. The third center of influence within CCM is Magufuli.
In my assessment, Magufuli holds strong popular influence especially as he is a figure that is widely recoginized as influential to citizens, and I believe this is one of the key cards that will determine CCM’s future. However, for some time now, within CCM, the power of state organs, specifically security apparatus, has largely determined the direction of the party. I believe all sides will position themselves to leverage that power—even those who do not directly control it, will find a way to do so.
In my view, after October 29, the trend of state institutions shaping the political environment can be compared to a balloon being inflated with air. If careful attention is not given moving forward, we may see that air exceed safe levels. It would be wise for CCM to remember to engage in politicking rather than over reliance on state organs.
So, is it possible that this is the moment for the retired (late) Magufuli to determine CCM’s fate in 2030? Nothing is impossible. However, there are many reasons and incentives for those currently in power to ensure that the “right person”—one who can guarantee their security after retirement—takes control. At the same time, there is pressure from other leaders to extend their own legacies through their children after retirement. There is also pressure from outside CCM, which is increasingly becoming a real and unpredictable force against the party.
All things considered—including the “ideology” of Magufuli and whether those currently in power can manage or suppress it—it is possible that 2030 could look very different for CCM compared to the usual expectations and theories.
Tony Alfred K is an analyst working with The Chanzo. He can be reached at tony@thechanzo.com and on X @tonyalfredk. These are the writer’s own opinions, and they do not necessarily reflect the viewpoint of The Chanzo. Do you want to publish in this space? Contact our editor at editor@thechanzo.com.
