A notable uptick in China-Tanzania engagements over the last twenty-four months has significantly expanded the nature and scope of the two countries’ cooperation. Although long-time friends, there have been two turning points in their sixty-year relationship.
The formative calibration of relations took place from 1964 to 1966 when ties between Tanzania and Western countries deteriorated due to disagreements over questions of internal policy autonomy and self-determination in southern Africa. This shift in Tanzania’s relations with Western powers coincided with China’s desire to boost its international standing by cultivating friends across the Global South.
Feeling vulnerable after breaking up with Western powers, Tanzania embraced China and took advantage of the country’s ambitious aid programme. In the next seven years (1964-1971), China agreed to finance the construction of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA) and – according to estimates by Americans – provided more than US$12 million in military aid. China provided crucial geopolitical counsel to Tanzania throughout the Cold War, including during the country’s struggle against Idi Amin.
The second shift in China-Tanzania relations happened towards the end of 2022, during a state visit to Beijing. The two countries’ leaders – Samia Suluhu Hassan and Xi Jinping – announced adopting a comprehensive strategic cooperation framework as a mechanism for transforming their relations.
Key elements of the framework included commitments to cooperate on safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity, upgrading business engagements, and enhancing the exchange of governance experience. Since then, political and military engagements between the two sides have notably increased.
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A delegation led by a provincial secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held meetings in Dar es Salaam in June, followed by another mid-level visit from China in July. In response, the Deputy Secretary General of Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), Mr John Mongella, went to China in July, and the party’s Secretary General, Dr Emmanuel Nchimbi, began his official visit there this week.
Apart from a spike in engagements between the two ruling parties, their militaries have cultivated a uniquely close relationship and increased cooperation. The Chief of Defence Forces of the TPDF, General John Jacob Mkunda, re-affirmed the uniqueness of the relationship in July when he said, “For those who do not know, the relationship between the Tanzania Peoples Defence Forces [TPDF) and the Peoples Liberation Army [PLA] is indescribable, and most of our equipment comes from China.”
He then listed numerous strategic military installations built with assistance from China. In what underscores a sense of trust and closeness, a Chinese firm played a key role in the construction of the TPDF headquarters in Dodoma and has continued to supply various equipment, from tanks to armoured vehicles. Military drills involving soldiers from the two sides took place in July and August to mark sixty years of friendship and cooperation.
During the last decade, there has been a joint exercise involving the TPDF and PLA every twenty-four to thirty-six months. However, this year’s July drill featured a stronger-than-usual emphasis on counter-terrorism preparedness.
This is a realm that the United States of America (USA) has often prioritised in its cooperation with the Tanzanian security sector, but mutual suspicion has impeded access and intelligence sharing and made cooperation transactional. The USA’s imposition of stringent travel and immigration restrictions on Tanzania in 2020 was attributed to that sense of suspicion. With President Samia’s ascent in 2022, USA agencies reported improved cooperation on counter-terrorism, but the change has not been transformative.
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The USA designation of Kenya as a major non-NATO ally, barely two years after China upgraded its bilateral relations with Tanzania, is likely to validate a popular understanding among Tanzanian elites that America has often favoured Kenya due to its capitalist orientation.
In addition, competition between America and China in southern Africa is also likely to solidify China-Tanzania relations. China has agreed to support the rehabilitation of the TAZARA railway, while America and the European Union are working to further develop the Lobito corridor, a transportation network that links Zambia, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Although generally desirable, better performance of the Lobito network will inevitably affect the share of southern African cargo that transits through the Dar es Salaam port.
China is capitalising on its historical ties with Tanzania, and an unparalleled record of supporting the TPDF to expand political and military cooperation. As competition between the US and China intensifies, the latter is likely to leverage both its solid record and the unique relationship that has developed between the PLA and TPDF to advance its interests in the region.
Undoubtedly, the TPDF will continue to draw on the skills and experience of both the US and China, which is in line with its non-alignment doctrine. However, China will continue to enjoy unique access for the foreseeable future. For those interested in Tanzanian politics, there is a need to keep an eye on how the shift in China-Tanzania relations will affect the country’s overall governance. For now, it is too early to tell.
Dastan Kweka is the founder of Evidentiary, a policy research firm, and a PhD candidate in Political Science at the University of Dar es Salaam. He’s available at kwekad@gmail.com or on X as @KwekaKweka. These are the writer’s own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of The Chanzo. Do you want to publish in this space? Contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com for further inquiries.
