Donald Trump’s overwhelming mandate in winning the US presidency and popular vote, while leading the Republican Party to majorities in the Senate and the House, affords him a firm popular mandate to advance his ‘America First’ policy abroad.
In Africa, his election heralds an opportunity to recalibrate the asymmetrical US-Africa relationship from patron-client to co-equal partner, from aid to trade, from misconceptions to re-conceptions.
However, this recalibration comes with the uncertainty of an American diplomat-in-chief who can be unpredictable and transactional, a leader with grave suspicions of multilateralism, foreign entanglements, and forever wars, and a populist advancing tariff wars, neo-isolationism, popular nationalism, and climate change denialism while promoting an inward-looking America First policy. Can Trump’s American foreign policy succeed in Africa?
For Trump to successfully advance his America First policy on the continent, he will have to come to terms with the reality that Washington is not the only game in town. Africa has many suitors. Neither can the US solve all the continent’s problems. Africa cannot be made into the image of the 51st state of the USA.
Trump will need to carefully align US foreign policy interests in Africa with the domestic realities in the countries concerned. For instance, in the Sahel, Washington needs to appreciate the anger and frustration of African populations with the slow process of democratic reform in those countries faced by the existentialist threat of radical jihadist invasions into their borders.
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Democratic consolidation is a messy business. Trump should appreciate why militaries are becoming the regimes of choice for those countries. American re-entry in the region to counter growing Chinese and Russian influence should apply a mix of hard power, with military aid to counter jihadist invasions, with soft power incentives of a soft landing for military regimes that relinquish power. This applies to Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad and Guinea.
Trump will also need to align his inward-looking foreign policy with American values as they advance US interests. That is to say, a hand-off foreign policy need not be synonymous with a hand-over policy of American leadership on the continent to other powers in areas like HIV/AIDS prevention, trade, anti-terrorism, partnership in infrastructure development, and expansion of technology on the continent to bridge the digital divide.
American values shape its trade policy via shared norms of fair trade, free markets and protection of individual liberties. In this regard, Trump’s 2018 Prosper Africa programme and the reauthorisation of AGOA should be revised to sharpen the bilateral agreements between the US and African countries and strengthen good governance and transparency through expanded trade.
This will reduce aid dependence and the perpetual cycle of African leaders lining up in Washington for handouts from Uncle Sam. That is, US foreign policy has to impact Africans’ day-to-day lives meaningfully.
The benefits of trade partnerships like Prosper Africa must be felt on the ground and impact the lives of the poorest and most vulnerable on the continent. Photo opportunities with African presidents in Washington, with no tangible impact on the people on the ground, adversely impact America’s standing on the continent.
In appointing the next US ambassador to Kenya and supporting Africa’s ambition of having a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, Trump should push the US Senate for quick confirmations of his ambassadorial nominees, focusing on career diplomats coming to Africa who understand the continent.
The US tends to underestimate the cunning and manipulative capacities of governments in Africa to present the facade of democratic governance on the surface while masking autocratic and repressive policies their governments pursue in reality. Classic illiberal democratic behaviour!
Lastly, for Trump to be taken seriously in Africa, he must make a concerted personal effort to tour the continent, not only to build people-to-people networks but also to show authenticity and seriousness towards the continent.
This should not be done as an afterthought as in the lame-duck sequence of an exhausted Biden Administration’s upcoming trip to Angola. It should be authentic, early in the president’s term and well-defined.
As I said, Washington is not the only game in town, and Africa has many suitors and options in a constantly changing multi polar world. Therefore, Trump’s America First Foreign Policy can succeed in Africa.
Prof David Monda teaches political science, international relations and foreign policy at the City University of New York. He’s available at dmonda@gradcenter.cuny.edu or on X as @dmonda1. The opinions expressed here are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Chanzo. If you are interested in publishing in this space, please contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com.
