Donald Trump’s electoral triumph in the 2024 election sent reverberations across the US and far beyond. His triumph was not only emphatic because Republicans won back the US Senate but also because Trump won the popular vote, a resounding mandate from the electorate to his Make America Great Again, Again or MAGA 2.0.
In Africa, the public kept a close track of the US elections, wondering what the benefits of another Trump Administration would be for the continent. His expletive language referring to the countries on the continent as “shithole” raised added anxiety.
In addition, the African Union had cultivated particularly close relations with the Biden Administration, leading to the US supporting a non-veto permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for Africa. That said, Trump’s Triumph can still benefit Africa.
Donald Trump is a transactional leader whose foreign policy centres on an American First premise. In this regard, Africa needs to align its foreign policy strategy in a manner that benefits from bandwagoning with the United States.
In diplomatic terms, the African Union should reinforce historic diplomatic relations with the US, especially in international organisations like the United Nations, where the continent has a majority of members in the General Assembly.
In addition, African nations on the BRICS forum can soften their stance from anti-American/anti-West to pro-Global South nations, not aligning with the West of the Axis of the Aggrieved in the shape of the West’s opponents in China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela.
Neo-isolationist foreign policy
This means that African nations should provide a voice to the developing nations of the African continent in the international arena, working within liberal global norms of behaviour among the international community of states.
Trump has established a neo-isolationist foreign policy, suspicious of global governance and institutions but cognizant of the limits of American power. While the US will seek to be more introverted in its foreign policy, it will still need to maintain and advance its interests in trade.
The US is concerned about its overreliance on China for trade and is looking to decouple itself from that country. In addition, the US is looking to diversify its global supply chains with new markets for its exports.
Africa’s drive to expand digital equity and access under the Biden Administration-led Partnership for Digital Access in Africa is a transactional avenue Africa can use to leverage its utility value for the Trump Administration, especially the Women in Digital Economy Fund of the Partnership for Digital Access in Africa.
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American investment in Africa in high technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI), the expansion of US-driven fibre optic networks, Starlink-led satellite propulsion, and space technology can set the continent up as a hub for innovation, space exploration, and internet-based broadband goods and service delivery.
AGOA
AGOA is up for renewal in 2025. Under Trump, stiff penalties will accrue for countries that do not allow for US access of American goods into their markets, even as duty-free access is provided to African nations. The tragedy for AGOA is that only a few African countries are actually able to benefit from access to the huge American market.
According to the Brookings Institute, only 19 of the 32 beneficiary countries have utilisation strategies for AGOA. The 19 countries that have National AGOA Strategies need to revise them to cater to the realities of Trump’s economic nationalist agenda, which is very America-centric.
Kenya, for instance, is third (US$7.3 billion) on the list of AGOA beneficiary countries with the highest total value of non-crude exports over the programme’s life. This is behind South Africa (US$55.9 billion) and Nigeria (US$11.2 billion).
The AU needs to devise structures to spread the benefits of AGOA duty-free access to the US market to more of the 54 countries on the continent. Africa’s textile and apparel exports to the US can increase fivefold if the right investment and export structures are put in place.
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Lastly, Africa will need to realign its foreign policy objectives with the Trump Administration to accommodate Washington’s new foreign policy focus. In this regard, Trump’s Prosper Africa Initiative centres on increasing the two-way trade and investment between the US and African countries.
With the foundations of trade between Washington and Africa already established via historic warm relations between the two continents, the daily flights by Egypt Air, Ethiopian Airlines, Kenya Airways, and Air Maroc can expand the two-way trade, which is a natural outgrowth of Africa realigning with the US.
The key to this strategic shift for Africa in the Trump sphere is to offer the Trump Administration a deal it cannot turn back: an opportunity that provides material, technological, business, innovation, and human capital development benefits for both the AU and Washington.
Time will tell how well Africa will utilise Trump’s Triumph to its advantage.
Prof David Monda teaches political science, international relations and foreign policy at the City University of New York. He’s available at dmonda@gradcenter.cuny.edu or on X as @dmonda1. The opinions expressed here are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Chanzo. If you are interested in publishing in this space, please contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com.
One Response
How shocking to see Africans forgetting so easily that Trump called them Shit Hole ! Now they are licking his backside! Shame!