Political stakeholders are now reflecting on the botched anti-abduction demonstration by the opposition party CHADEMA, which was planned on September 23, 2024. This was the third demonstration in the country within two months. Other protests emerged randomly in Lamadi, Simiyu, and Makuyuni, Arusha, all protesting against the disappearance and abduction of people, particularly children. These two protests were not linked to any political party.
To conclude we can say there have been four peaceful demonstrations in the country within two months and that is if we include the Ngorongoro Maasai demonstration against the government’s treatment since the plan for voluntary relocation was announced. The demonstrations drew hundreds of Maasai and resulted in the government revising some of its decisions, including the denial of services and the delisting of villages.
Even though CHADEMA’s demonstrations were not successful as members didn’t turn up, many believe it has left some lessons and many questions that will shape the direction of our national politics.
Hardline conservatives within the ruling party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), who believe in ruling the country through oppression, will use the events of September 23, as a key example to show that oppression is the correct approach.
Moderate conservatives, particularly in the government, who believe that people must show gratitude for being “granted freedom,” will use these events to continue demanding that the opposition praise the government and criticize it only with the government’s permission and in a way that the government prefers.
To the abductors, who seemed to cool off during the period of political heat, maybe they will return to disappearing people, making parents die of loneliness for not knowing the fate of their children like William Sije who died on the date of the anniversary of the disappearance of his son.
It seems they become so satisfied when they make orphans and widows. Unfortunately, and may God help us Tanzanians, there are no signs from the powers that be of genuine concern regarding the people’s complaints. There is no care. There is neglect and no indication that this will change in the future.
For the police, especially their leaders, I expect to see them increasingly involved in politics, a matter which former President Kikwete warned his party about in 2013. The police will be more visible in politics, primarily because of the various benefits they receive, including special respect accorded to them, increased and expedited budgets, and self-importance. This sense of self-importance could lead to some conflicts with their peers in other institutions.
Regarding the relationship between political parties, particularly in light of the upcoming election, ACT Wazalendo’s statement advising CHADEMA to abandon its demonstration is the firm reason why CHADEMA and ACT are unlikely to genuinely come together at the same table, maybe at some events, but not any serious engagement.
For ACT, it will be difficult to clear their name from the mistrust the public holds towards them. Their statement was a political miscalculation that unnecessarily reinforced the perception that they can not be trusted as an opposition party. If the goal was to demonstrate alignment with the government, that objective would likely yield returns soon.
On CHADEMA, the party leader Freeman Mbowe was able to salvage failure into some success, but still, there are some difficult questions that CHADEMA has to answer.
Mbowe’s decision to appear at the demonstration with his daughter, amidst uncertainty and threats, is a turning point. First, he demonstrated great concern and sincerity among Tanzanians who were hurting because of the abductions. If you ask why Mbowe and his daughter were arrested, the answer is simple: because they were protesting against the abduction and disappearance of Tanzanians. He showed leadership.
Secondly, for those who had been saying that leaders hide their families while expecting others to protest, Mbowe silenced those voices. Given the political heat at the time, it was unimaginable that Mbowe would show up with his daughter, who is not a politician. This is something that will change the direction, especially within CHADEMA. If all of Mbowe’s lessons to party members, particularly the youth, had not resonated before, yesterday’s lesson scored 100% with everyone. It was a masterclass of Tanzania politics.
Thirdly, the false report by the Arusha Regional Commissioner that Mbowe had fled Dar es Salaam and went to Arusha, only for him to be seen in Dar es Salaam, is something that will be swept under the rug, but it is significant. Hardliners who believe in brutality have been using false information to climb the ranks and gain attention from their superiors—and they are being listened to.
But the most important question is why did CHADEMA fail?
Dependency on prominent figures
Something to note about September 23 was that many people were relying on Mbowe, Tundu Lissu, Godbless Lema, Joseph Mbilinyi (Sugu), John Mnyika, and other prominent figures to be the driving force of the protest success.
However, on the other hand, even if you are a police officer tasked with stopping the protests, those are the first people and other prominent figures on social media that you will seek to arrest, and the police did just that. There was no excessive use of force, such as beatings or torture, even during the arrest of Lissu at his home. This was a positive aspect, although it does not justify the police’s suppression of CHADEMA’s right to peacefully assemble.
Let us not ignore that these prominent figures have been under significant stress, especially regarding their safety. Every human can endure only so much. We must give them a break.
After the brutal murder of Mohamed Ali Kibao, many CHADEMA leaders have experienced stress, fear, and profound sorrow, although many have also continued to show great courage. In the end, we are just humans, we can endure up to a point, but not indefinitely.
Many analysts have continued to blame Tanzanians for not standing up when their rights are violated, but the events of the past two months indicate otherwise. Experience in the past two months shows that any successful civil response begins at the grassroots level, not from the top down. Now, for CHADEMA, their grassroots level starts with their members, then the general public. The foundation of grassroots politics lies with the community mobilizers.
Community mobilizers are individuals with a strong belief in their ideology and can build relationships and influence their immediate community. They often volunteer their time and resources without expecting anything in return.
Due to the heavy emphasis on prominent figures in party politics, community mobilizers seem to have lost their direction. Many of them are always willing to dedicate themselves, sacrifice, and step forward; these are the individuals who were supposed to bring in the numbers required to signal there was a demonstration, but they were not there.
Community mobilizers for many parties have ended up frustrated and some even left party politics completely. It is not that on September 23, there were no CHADEMA members who showed up; there were some who were around but remained isolated.
In any social activity, community mobilizers should be the ones tasked with motivating and connecting with grassroots members. Here, it’s crucial to assess how many people each mobilizer has and what their role will be and to also provide immediate adaptive mechanisms such as changing routes or changing where to start or stop. The presence of leaders and prominent figures or the public announcement will help attract the general public, but should not be the only factor that draws people in.
Perhaps it is the right time for CHADEMA to strengthen its politics through community mobilizers, those who believe in CHADEMA’s ideals. Their lack of prominence in the party should not be misconstrued as of low importance, if there are opportunities, they should be given priority.
However, CHADEMA needs a long-term strategy for all its activities—whether internal meetings, public rallies, or demonstrations. For example, many people were asking why all CHADEMA leaders were arrested from their homes, which was something everyone had anticipated.
Distrust
Since the internal elections of CHADEMA began, there has been significant distrust within the party, with individuals suspecting one another. Additionally, reports of corruption of money coming from the ruling party have not eased the claim.
This atmosphere may have created difficulties in communication and trust among members. CHADEMA has the responsibility to decide whether to continue in this state of distrust, where nothing substantive can be accomplished or to sever ties with those who foster distrust among members.
Moreover, the internal divisions within the party do not strengthen the party but rather weaken it. While other parties may have the luxury of tension and mistrust, CHADEMA does not have that privilege; they need to address their issues.
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The presence of hardline conservatives within the government and the ruling party indicates that many of them will push for more oppression in Tanzania politics.
The use of violence would be another political miscalculation in our politics. First, it will continue to diminish the popularity of the said leaders, but secondly, no one can be certain of the extent of brutality that the Tanzanian community can endure before the whole society falls apart, and that can happen.
In general, political wisdom is needed and is crucial, although I do not think this is something that currently appeals to leaders. This means there is a need for innovation in political parties to build institutions that can withstand brutality and the violation of rights by those in power.
Moreover, considering the state of the world, as developed countries struggle to stop immigrants, we need to have a nation where everyone can live, children can grow and be raised by their parents without worrying about when kidnappers might strike, and young people can pursue their dreams without fearing disappearing.
We need a nation where it is not necessary to be a government sycophant for your life to be secure. For better or worse, for many of us, we have no other country; we must make our country better for all, not just for a few or for those who can shower praise on the government, but for everyone. The weather so far looks bleak, so May God help us!
Tony Alfred K is a writer and analyst working with The Chanzo. He can be reached at tony@thechanzo.com and on X @tonyalfredk. These are the writer’s own opinions, and they do not necessarily reflect the viewpoint of The Chanzo Initiative. Do you want to publish in this space? Contact our editor at editor@thechanzo.com.
