Dar es Salaam – With one week remaining before Tanzania’s October 29 general election, the East African nation finds itself gripped by mounting political tensions as authorities intensify their crackdown on opposition voices whilst simultaneously rolling out populist measures aimed at ensuring voter turnout in what has become an increasingly uncompetitive race.
The systematic exclusion of the country’s main opposition parties has left President Samia Suluhu Hassan facing minimal electoral challenge, yet beneath the surface of this apparent political calm lies a volatile mix of public discontent, security concerns, and fears of low voter participation that could undermine the legitimacy of the electoral process.
The dismantling of viable opposition has been methodical and comprehensive. CHADEMA, the country’s main opposition party, has seen its national chairperson and potential presidential candidate, Tundu Lissu, detained on treason charges related to the party’s No Reforms, No Election campaign.
Its organisational capacity has been further weakened by the court injunction against its top brass to engage in any political activities, as well as heightened police crackdown on its leaders and members.
The fate of ACT Wazalendo, the second-largest opposition party, has been equally bleak. Its presidential candidate, Luhaga Mpina, endured a two-month legal battle that ended on October 16 when the High Court rejected his constitutional challenge to his disqualification by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
READ MORE: Luhaga Mpina: Tanzania’s Opposition Dreams Die in Court
The court ruled it lacked jurisdiction to hear challenges against INEC decisions, effectively validating the commission’s authority to exclude candidates based on administrative determinations. ACT Wazalendo is appealing the decision.
A dual strategy
Faced with growing tensions and social media calls for protests on election day, the government has adopted a dual strategy combining forceful security assurances with economic incentives. President Samia has been unequivocal in her messaging.
Speaking at a campaign rally in Dar es Salaam on October 21, she declared: “I am speaking as President and Commander-in-Chief. The only demonstrations that will exist are those of people going to the polling stations to vote. There will be no other demonstrations. There will be no security threat.”
These assurances have been reinforced by a visible security apparatus. Police have arrested individuals accused of discouraging voter turnout, including one person in the Tabora region for allegedly writing on walls: “Don’t go vote, go to demonstrations on the 29th.”
A police statement on October 6 warned that the force would pursue, arrest, and prosecute anyone involved in creating or distributing inciting content on social media. The Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF) has taken the unusual step of issuing public statements twice in eleven days, warning citizens to disregard social media posts attempting to draw the military into politics.
Other initiatives
Alongside these security measures, the government has unveiled a series of initiatives that observers interpret as designed to encourage voter participation. On October 21, INEC announced that voters who have lost their voter cards could use alternative identification, including driver’s licences, national ID cards, or passports.
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The timing of this announcement, just eight days before the election, suggests an effort to remove barriers to voting.
More substantial have been the economic announcements. On October 16, the government announced 17,710 new public sector job vacancies, including 3,945 assistant nursing officers and 427 drivers. This followed an October 11 statement that 41,500 new positions had been allocated for the 2025/2026 fiscal year, including 12,176 teachers and 7,000 security personnel.
The government has also announced a 33.4 per cent increase in the private sector minimum wage, effective January 1, 2026, raising it from Sh275,060 to Sh358,322, and promised infrastructure improvements, including the installation of eight new water pumps in Dar es Salaam.
The government’s concern about voter turnout reflects both historical patterns and current political realities. Whilst the number of registered voters has increased by 26.53 per cent from 29.7 million in 2020 to 37.6 million in 2025, registration figures do not guarantee participation.
The revised figures, announced by INEC on October 7, show 36,650,932 voters from the mainland and 996,303 from Zanzibar, with women constituting 50.34 per cent of the electorate.
A volatile pattern
Historical data reveal a volatile pattern of voter engagement. According to analysis by The Citizen newspaper, the 2020 election saw 14,662,746 registered voters—49.27 per cent of the total—stay away from the polls.
Only 15,091,950 voters (50.72 per cent) participated, a significant decline from the 67.34 per cent turnout in 2015. The pattern has been inconsistent: the 2000 election achieved 84.4 per cent turnout, whilst 2010 recorded the lowest participation at 42.8 per cent.
Prof Ibrahim Bakari of the University of Dar es Salaam attributed low turnout to a lack of faith in the electoral system.
“People did not vote due to varied reasons,” he told The Citizen following the 2020 election. “Some were far from their registered stations, whilst others saw no value in spending their time in the process as they had no trust in the whole electoral system.”
He suggested that confidence in institutions such as the police, security forces, and electoral commission would be crucial to increasing participation.
Additional challenges
The current political climate suggests turnout could face additional challenges. The systematic exclusion of viable opposition, combined with the threat of protests, may convince many citizens that participation is either futile or risky.
Social media has become the primary channel for organising dissent, with calls for street demonstrations on election day to protest corruption, government waste, and deteriorating public services.
The government has responded by banning X (formerly Twitter) and allegedly limiting TikTok’s live features, whilst conducting joint military and police exercises in Dar es Salaam, Morogoro, Mwanza, Mbeya, Arusha and Dodoma.
As October 29 approaches, the nation holds its breath. The government’s efforts to maintain peace and encourage participation will be put to the test in an election that is shaping up to be a referendum not just on the ruling party, but on the very state of multiparty democracy in Tanzania.
