Dodoma – A presidential commission has declared that the decades-old model of allowing human settlement and livestock grazing alongside wildlife conservation inside the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) is no longer sustainable.
The commission presented its findings to President Samia Suluhu Hassan at the Chamwino State House in Dodoma on March 12, 2026.
The commission, led by Court of Appeal Judge Dr Gerard Ndika, was established in December 2024 and formally launched in February 2025 to assess land use conflicts in the NCA, the Pololeti Game Reserve, and the Lake Natron Forest Reserve.
Its report, running to hundreds of pages, was presented alongside a second commission’s findings on the so-called voluntary relocation exercise — both reports having been awaited by the Maasai community since their original May 2025 deadline passed without release.
Population pressure
The commission’s most striking finding concerns population growth. When the NCA was established in 1959, approximately 8,000 people lived within its boundaries. By 2022, that figure had risen to 117,930, and the commission projects it will reach 276,651 by 2050 at a growth rate of 3.6 per cent per year.
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Livestock numbers have followed a similar trajectory. From 261,723 animals in 1960, the herd inside the NCA grew to 715,466 by 2022 — comprising 274,943 cattle, 193,800 goats, 26,553 sheep, and 1,132 donkeys.
The commission found that by 2022, livestock alone required 4,579 square kilometres — equivalent to 56.4 per cent of the NCA’s total area of 8,122.7 square kilometres. By 2050, that demand is projected to reach 8,464.56 square kilometres, or 104 per cent of the entire conservation area.
“This means that even if wildlife and settlements were completely removed, the area would still not be sufficient for livestock use alone by 2050,” the commission’s chairperson, Dr Ndika, told the gathering.
Wildlife in decline
The commission also documented a troubling decline in wildlife within the NCA. Several species — including the Oryx, Eland, and Gerenuk — have disappeared entirely from the Ngorongoro Crater.
Resident wildebeest declined sharply, while Thomson’s gazelle fell from 5,000 in 1965 to just 1,500 by 2019, and Grant’s gazelle dropped from 17,000 in 1965 to only 400 by 2019. The commission attributed these declines to the expansion of human activity and the effects of climate change within the conservation area.
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Human-wildlife conflict has also intensified. Between 2015 and 2025, an average of seven people were killed by wildlife annually, bringing the total to 77 deaths over the decade. A further 274 people were injured, and 1,450 livestock were killed by wildlife during the same period.
The commission further flagged the growing threat of zoonotic diseases — including anthrax and rabies — spreading between humans, livestock, and wildlife due to their close proximity within the conservation area.
Pololeti and Natron
Beyond the NCA itself, the commission examined two other contested areas. In the case of the Pololeti Game Reserve, communities in the Loliondo and Sale divisions have continued to protest their exclusion from the decision to upgrade the former Loliondo Forest Reserve to a game reserve in 2022.
The commission found that the government’s transfer of management authority over Pololeti from the Tanzania Wildlife Management Authority (TAWA) to the NCA was done without following the legal requirements of the Wildlife Conservation Act (Chapter 283), creating legal, institutional, and operational friction.
For the Lake Natron Forest Reserve, the commission found that four villages — Engaresero, Pinyinyi, Oldonyo Sambu, and Jema — fear losing their land if the government proceeds with plans to upgrade the reserve to a game reserve.
Key recommendations
The commission presented a series of recommendations covering all three areas. For the NCA, it called for a comprehensive review of the NCA Act (Chapter 284) with full stakeholder participation, arguing the law is outdated and does not reflect current realities.
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It further recommended that all non-conservation activities be moved outside the NCA, and that all residents be formally registered and issued certificates of residence as required under Section 23 of the NCA Act.
The commission also called for the strengthening of the pastoral council’s relationship with the NCA authority, and for the government to intensify the implementation of its 2019 national invasive species control strategy.
On Pololeti, the commission recommended that management be returned to TAWA, that agricultural extension services be improved within the 2,500 square kilometres allocated to communities, and that a 223-kilometre road from Mto wa Mbu to Waso be paved to stimulate economic growth in the Loliondo district.
For Lake Natron, it recommended that the government first conduct a fresh assessment of whether upgrading the reserve remains necessary before taking any further steps.
The commission also called for a review of the conduct of non-governmental organisations operating in the Ngorongoro area, noting that some had been found to be spreading misinformation about government conservation efforts.
It recommended that the Prime Minister’s office oversee the implementation of all recommendations.
President’s remarks
President Samia, receiving the reports, acknowledged the gravity of the findings and pledged that the government would act on them.
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“Ngorongoro is our diamond, it is Tanzania’s property, but it is also a world heritage,” she said. “Those who bring words for their own benefit, for what they see, God has given Ngorongoro to us in Tanzania, so it is ours, but it is also world heritage at the same time. We have no choice but to cherish this gift that God has given us.”
She described the NCA as a globally unique site — home to a 600-metre-deep volcanic crater, diverse ecosystems including savanna, woodlands, and forests, evidence of human history dating back three million years at Oldupai Gorge and Laetoli, and tourism activities ranging from game drives to bird watching.
President Samia also noted that the NCA and surrounding areas contain valuable mineral resources that are being sought globally, adding another dimension to the importance of protecting the region.
“We have heard that the government carried out the exercise with good intentions but made mistakes in some areas,” she added. “Those are the areas where we now need to sit down, reflect, and make corrections.”
She directed the Chief Secretary and the Prime Minister to coordinate the implementation of the commission’s recommendations and to ensure that adequate resources are made available.
Broader context
The Ngorongoro Conservation Area is part of the larger Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, which includes Serengeti National Park, the Maswa, Kijereshi, Ikorongo, Grumeti, and Pololeti game reserves, and Kenya’s Masai Mara National Reserve. The NCA is particularly critical as a calving ground for the Great Wildebeest Migration, one of the most celebrated wildlife spectacles on earth.
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Tourist numbers at the NCA grew from 592,498 in 2015 to 884,000 by March 2025, with revenues increasing from Sh60 billion to Sh223 billion over the same period.
The commission’s report was presented nearly ten months after its original deadline, following concerns raised by the Maasai community in a public statement on March 5, 2026, in which they warned that the delay had caused “fear, anxiety, and loss of hope” among residents.
