The rain begins quietly, as it often does in East African cities. Soft drops tap on iron sheet roofs, and the scent of wet soil rises into the air. In Mwanza, the granite hills glisten after the first showers, and the breeze from Lake Victoria carries a comforting calm.
Within hours, however, that calm disappears. Water rushes down the rocky slopes, squeezing through narrow paths between houses and pouring into drainage channels already choked with plastic waste. Streets quickly turn into streams.
In neighbourhoods such as Mkuyuni, Butimba, and Nyegezi in Nyamagana district, residents watch water creeping toward their doors. In Ilemela, places like Daraja la Wamasi, Kona ya Bwiru, and Kirumba Mission face the same reality. Ordinary rain rapidly becomes flooding.
These scenes reflect a much wider national pattern as the country enters the Masika rainy season from March to May. The Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) warns that this season brings normal to above-normal rainfall across several regions.
In early March 2026, heavy rains are already intensifying, triggering flooding and infrastructure damage in different parts of the country. Northern and coastal regions, including Dar es Salaam, Pwani, and Morogoro, experience downpours strong enough to overwhelm drainage systems and disrupt transportation.
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Around the Lake Victoria Basin, sustained rainfall increases the risk of flash floods and submerged settlements.
Disasters worsen rapidly
In Morogoro, Kilosa district experiences severe flooding that affects more than 5,000 people from 1,009 households after rising water floods homes and farmland. In the Miyombo area alone, over 100 houses are reported flooded.
Roads also suffer serious damage, including the Kilosa–Mhenda road, which becomes impassable after being washed out by floodwaters. The disaster claims lives, with a 70-year-old woman dying after being caught in the floods at Kidete Station.
More warnings continue to emerge. In March, the TMA issued alerts for Lindi, Mtwara, Pwani Region, and the Mafia Islands, warning that heavy rainfall increases the risk of floods during early to mid-March.
Forecasters warn that areas along the northern coast, the western Lake Victoria Basin, and the northeastern highlands face a high risk of flooding as the rains intensify through May.
In cities like Mwanza, flooding happens because of how urban spaces expand and are managed. Mwanza’s geography makes the city particularly vulnerable.
The city sits on steep granite hills that slope toward Lake Victoria. Hydrologists often describe this landscape as a natural funnel.
Urban growth challenges
When intense rainfall occurs, water moves rapidly downhill through valleys and drainage channels such as the Mirongo River. When those channels become blocked or too narrow, the water spreads into nearby communities.
Urban growth worsens the situation. Mwanza’s population increases rapidly, rising from about 2.7 million people in 2012 to nearly 3.7 million in 2022.
As the city expands, many new settlements are built on steep hillsides or directly inside natural drainage corridors. Vegetation that once absorbed rainwater disappears to make space for houses and construction.
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As a result, rain that once soaked into the ground now rushes downhill with greater speed. Deforestation for construction weakens the soil that once stabilised hillsides.
During storms, loose soil washes into streams and eventually into Lake Victoria, increasing erosion and damaging ecosystems. At the same time, drainage channels in crowded settlements increasingly become dumping sites for plastic bags and household waste.
When heavy rains arrive, those blocked drains trap water in streets and homes. This cycle repeats itself almost every rainy season.
Preparation
Floods may seem simply a natural consequence of climate and geography. The region has always experienced rainy seasons, and heavy rainfall is part of the climate system.
This argument misses a crucial point. Rainfall alone does not create disasters; poor planning makes them worse.
Cities around the world experience intense rain without their streets turning into rivers every year. The difference is preparation.
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Urban planning that protects natural waterways can prevent houses from being built in high-risk zones. Tree planting on hillsides can slow runoff and stabilise soil.
Effective waste management systems can keep drainage channels open so water can flow away rather than flooding neighbourhoods. These solutions are not complicated.
They require political will, stronger enforcement, and sustained public cooperation.
Adaptation
The Masika rains are only beginning, and forecasts suggest that more storms will arrive in the coming weeks. If the early floods in Morogoro show anything, it is that the impacts spread quickly when preparation is weak.
For communities already living in flood-prone areas, adaptation becomes urgent. Local authorities need to invest more in drainage maintenance and enforce settlement planning rules.
Communities themselves need to rethink waste disposal habits that turn drains into dumping grounds. The rain itself is not the enemy.
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Rain sustains agriculture, replenishes water sources, and cools the land. But when cities grow faster than planning, when hills lose their trees, and when drainage systems are neglected, rain becomes something else entirely.
It becomes a warning. If the country continues treating floods as temporary seasonal inconveniences rather than long-term urban planning failures, the same scenes will repeat every year.
Rising water, stranded roads, damaged homes, and lives lost to disasters could be prevented. The rain is already falling.
The real question now is whether action will be taken before the next storm arrives.
Mariam Gichan is an archaeologist and journalist based in Dar es Salaam. She can be reached at mariamgichan@gmail.com or on +255 754 215 690. The opinions expressed here are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Chanzo. If you are interested in publishing in this space, please contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com.
