Dar es Salaam — Tanzania faces a heightened risk of flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and infrastructure disruption in the final quarter of 2026 after the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) warned that a very strong El Niño is expected to substantially shape this year’s Vuli rains.

In its forecast issued on August 18, 2026, TMA said the October–December season would bring above-normal to normal rainfall to much of northern and eastern Tanzania, with rainfall expected to intensify in November and continue into January 2027.

The warning covers the northern coast, including Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Pwani and Mafia, as well as Unguja and Pemba, northern Morogoro, the north-eastern highlands of Arusha, Manyara and Kilimanjaro, the Lake Victoria basin, and Kakonko and Kibondo districts in northern Kigoma. 

TMA says rains may begin in parts of the Lake Victoria basin between the fourth week of September and the first week of October before spreading to other Vuli areas during October.

“The 2026 Vuli rainfall season is expected to be substantially influenced by a very strong El Niño,” TMA Director General Dr Ladislaus Chang’a said, adding that above-normal to normal rains were expected over much of the affected zones.

The official forecast links the risk to persistently warmer-than-average central tropical Pacific waters, a signature of El Niño, alongside a warmer western Indian Ocean, conditions expected to strengthen rain-bearing systems over the country.

READ MORE: El Niño-induced Heavy Rains Leave 155 People Dead in Tanzania

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has similarly said El Niño has developed, is likely to strengthen through the remainder of 2026, and could push seasonal totals above 400mm in parts of the Lake Victoria basin and western Tanzania.

Implications

For residents of low-lying settlements, river catchments and areas with poor drainage, the forecast has serious public-safety implications. TMA says excessive soil moisture and flooding could damage crops and agricultural infrastructure, while rising river and reservoir levels could threaten water and energy assets; contaminated water could in turn cause outbreaks of disease.

The United Nations humanitarian office has also identified parts of Tanzania as exposed to flash floods, river flooding and landslides, with urban and low-lying areas particularly vulnerable.

The forecast also sets out risks to the transport network that are central to economic life. TMA says heavy rain may erode roads, undermine embankments, damage bridges and disrupt the Meter Gauge Railway, Standard Gauge Railway, ports and airports, while contractors have been advised to move heavy equipment from valleys and watercourses before rains begin.

TMA’s sector guidance further warns of landslides around unstable small-scale mining pits and tells health facilities to retain contingency plans, stock medicines and supplies, and prepare for interruptions to access.

Recent experience

That caution is informed by recent experience. The last comparable national-scale El Niño episode, from November 2023 to mid-2024, brought floods and landslides to more than 14 regions, killing at least 155 people, affecting more than 200,000 and displacing tens of thousands, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC).

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The 2023–24 disaster, driven by El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and later intensified by Cyclone Hidaya, was felt especially in Pwani, Morogoro and Manyara. The subsequent Tanzania Red Cross response deployed 450 trained volunteers, ran 12 temporary camps and reached 85,010 people with shelter, health, water, sanitation, cash and psychosocial assistance, but the IFRC said some planned community disaster-risk-reduction work was not completed because of limited funding and time.

The Government says it is now preparing rather than waiting for the first floods. Yona Benjamin, the Disaster Risk Reduction Coordinator in the Prime Minister’s Office, told The Citizen newspaper in July that officials had begun developing a national contingency plan to guide preparedness, emergency response and recovery in collaboration with government institutions, non-governmental organisations and other stakeholders.

“We have already started preparing the contingency plan,” Benjamin told the paper. “It will clearly outline what needs to be done before, during and after disasters occur.”

The proposed plan is intended to cover public awareness, rescue equipment, humanitarian aid and response operations, and officials say individual activities have been costed. However, the plan was still in the approval process in July, and the total budget had not been released, leaving a significant part of the operational picture unresolved before the forecast onset of rains.

Investments in preparedness

At the national level, Tanzania has made measurable investments in preparedness. The country adopted a National Disaster Preparedness and Response Plan and Disaster Communication Strategy in 2022, while the Prime Minister’s Office operates the Emergency Operations and Communication Centre (EOCC) in Dodoma to coordinate monitoring and response, integrating information from multiple agencies and communicating alerts through SMS, media and digital channels.

TMA’s role is to monitor weather and issue seasonal, monthly, 10-day, daily and special warnings; the Disaster Management Department is tasked with coordinating mitigation plans. 

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TMA says regional, district, ward and village or street disaster committees should work with sector agencies to issue early warnings, educate communities, prepare, respond and support recovery, while local authorities should clear and improve drainage and strengthen village and district disaster committees.

Health authorities and communities are urged to remove mosquito breeding sites, maintain adequate medical stocks and keep health services running if roads or facilities are affected. 

Water and energy authorities should manage rising water levels and quality risks and reinforce infrastructure; transport agencies should inspect vulnerable assets, while farmers are advised to use weather information, strengthen drainage on farms and adopt soil and water-conservation practices.

At an August 14 TMA stakeholder forum, TMA Board Chairperson Justice Mshibe Ali Bakari urged sectors to study the warnings and prepare for their own risks, while Dr Chang’a said TMA had expanded localised forecasts to 86 districts in Vuli regions.

“Preparedness remains critical as climate patterns continue to shift,” Dr Chang’a said.

Yet the country’s readiness remains uneven. A 2025 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery analysis says Tanzania’s EOCC and disaster-management legal framework are important gains, but functional emergency operations centres are still lacking below the national level and cell-broadcast warning technology is still being implemented; Tanzania’s Early Warnings for All roadmap aims to build regional centres, response teams and an integrated disaster information system.

READ MORE: EU Releases Additional Sh276m to Support Victims of El Niño in Tanzania 

For now, TMA’s advice is for people and institutions to follow official forecasts and alerts rather than treat a seasonal outlook as a guarantee of safety or calamity in every locality. 

The authority stresses that the forecast applies to broad areas and should be updated with shorter-term warnings — a distinction that matters as Tanzania enters a season whose defining risk may be not merely heavy rain, but how quickly communities and public institutions act on the warning.