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Voter Registration for Tanzania’s Local Government Election: Historic Statistics or Historic Turnout?

Compared to the 2022 census data which showed that the number of people aged sixteen and above was 32,988,131, statistically, if we reduce the number of deaths, there is a strong possibility that the Ministry of TAMISEMI has been able to register all eligible Tanzanians for voting

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It is likely that for many years to come, scholars will continue to study the efficiency that enabled the President’s Office, Regional Administration, and Local Government of Tanzania (PO-RALG)-TAMISEMI to make history by registering almost all Tanzanians in the voter registration exercise for the local government elections.

According to the ministry’s statistics, 31,282,331 Tanzanians registered to vote during the exercise, which started on October 11 and ended on October 20, 2024. Comparing this to the 2022 Census statistics, which showed that the population aged sixteen and above was 32,988,131, there is a high possibility that TAMISEMI has successfully registered all eligible Tanzanian voters when we account for deaths and those who will still be 17 by the time of the election.

Voters Registration vs Census statistics

Deus Kibamba, a political analyst and academician who is also serving as an official observer of the local government elections, expressed his surprise at the statistics. Speaking to The Chanzo, he said, “What surprises me is not the large number of registrations; for me, what surprises me is the speed used to compile this data.”

“I am an election observer, so I have visited many registration centers in various regions of Tanzania. As I monitored the registration process, I found that it was being conducted very manually—extremely manually. I thought it would take about four days for the Ministry to collect those statistics, count the data, and send it to the Ministry for compilation before the figures reached the Minister,” Kibamba elaborated, drawing from his experience as an election observer both within and outside Africa.

When PO-RALG Minister Mohamed Mchengerwa was asked how they managed to gather statistics so quickly despite the manual registration process, he explained that it was due to the presence of ministry officers in every corner of Tanzania.

“We planned well to ensure that our officers are present at every level, starting from the grassroots in the hamlets and villages. Our officers have done a tremendous job to ensure that we have statistics every day. Every day, as we complete the registration process, we have the data,” Mchengerwa clarified when speaking to reporters on October 21, 2024.

Some of the leading regions in voter registration include Pwani, Tanga, Mwanza, and Dodoma. Amos Makalla, spokesperson for the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), explained that the response reflected in TAMISEMI’s statistics is due to the development the party has brought.

“This high voter registration turnout is largely due to the popularity of the CCM government, particularly because of the implementation of its manifesto,” Makalla said when speaking to reporters on October 22, 2024. “This exercise has been successful because the people support the implementation of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi manifesto.”

In highly populated areas like Dar es Salaam, the registration exercise appears to have reached almost every corner. Comparing the census data with voter registration data, only 115,274 people have not registered to vote in the local government elections in Dar es Salaam. Meanwhile, in Dodoma and Mwanza, the number of registered voters has even surpassed the official population count according to census data, which typically takes time to change.

READ: Longido DC Sacked Following Boastful Video About Rigging 2020 Election and ‘Getting Stuff Done’ in Some Tanzania’s Bushland

Thomas Kibwana, a political and international relations analyst, noted that the large number of people registering to vote is also due to an increase in eligible voters in Tanzania.

“There is a significant increase in young people who were not eligible to vote in 2019 but now meet the criteria,” Kibwana remarked.

“Some have come forward to claim that these statistics are fabricated, but we need to recognize that every day we encourage people to vote. It’s surprising that when the numbers are high, we complain that the statistics are fake. The key point is that the list of registered voters will be made public,” he added.

Activist Ananilea Nkya, one of the individuals who filed a lawsuit challenging TAMISEMI’s oversight of the local government elections, expressed doubt about the integrity of the statistics.

READ MORE: High Court Allows PO-RALG to be Challenged on Managing Tanzania Civic Elections

“I will be the last person to believe that 31 million Tanzanians aged 18 and above have registered to vote in this year’s 2024 local government elections,” Nkya explained.

 “The reason I don’t believe that 31 million people have been registered is because of the entity running and coordinating the election. Since the Minister of TAMISEMI has a vested interest in this election—because his party, CCM, is contesting in it—he, as the chief overseer of TAMISEMI, could manipulate the process for the benefit of his party,” Nkya elaborated.

Nkya provided examples of complaints regarding the registration of individuals under the age of 18. As of October 22, 2024, various videos have continued to circulate on social media, with one video gaining significant attention showing Form One students surprised to see their names on the registration lists.

TAMISEMI Minister Mohamed Mchengerwa addressed this issue, stating that there is no evidence of individuals under eighteen being registered to vote.  “We’re hearing about this on social media, but there is nowhere in Tanzania where anyone under the age of 18 has been registered to vote,” Mchengerwa told reporters on October 21, 2024.

He further explained that the presence of party agents ensures that the election process remains transparent and fair. “I must say the process has been transparent and free because every polling station, which could potentially face complaints, has agents from all parties. It’s not our responsibility to ensure there are party agents, but if challenges arise in any area, the agents in that location can inform us,” Mchengerwa emphasized.

The issue of local government election supervision has been contentious in Tanzania. In 2004, twelve political parties filed a case at the High Court against the use of resident registers, as local government officials were moving from house to house to register voters.

At the time, the country was introducing a permanent voter register for its general election, and the parties argued that elections should be stopped and resident registers should not be used. The ruling from the High Court, released on November 9, 2004, allowed the elections to proceed but prohibited the use of the resident register, which was not adhered to in the elections that took place on November 21 and 28, 2004.

Mwananchi news clipping (October 06,2004) showing parties leaders outside the high court in 2004

Fast forward to 2024: Section 10(1)(c) of the new National Electoral Commission Act provides that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) can supervise local government elections in accordance with the law that will be enacted by parliament, which, by the time of this election, had yet to be enacted.

This has allowed PO-RALG to continue supervising the election, something that the three petitioners in the case at the High Court want for it to be made clear. The judgment for case 19721/2024, filed by three citizens—Bob Wangwe, Ananilea Nkya, and Buberwa Kaiza—regarding the issue of TAMISEMI’s supervision of the election is expected to be released on October 25, 2024.

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