Dar es Salaam – The government says it has a National Emergency Plan to prepare for, respond to and recover from the effects of anticipated El Niño rains, following a forecast that above-normal to normal rainfall may affect large parts of the country from late September through January.
On September 2, the Prime Minister’s Office referred to the National Emergency Plan for Responding to the Impacts of El Niño. It issued 13 directives to implement it, confirming its move beyond the development stage reported in July.
The complete plan and a costed activity schedule, however, had not been published on the Prime Minister’s Office website reviewed for this news report.
That briefing came after the Tanzania Meteorological Authority, TMA, warned on August 18 that a very strong El Niño was expected to shape the October to December Vuli season.
The authority expects rains to begin in the Lake Victoria basin between the fourth week of September and the first week of October, intensify in November and potentially continue into January 2027.
READ MORE: TMA Raises Alarm Over ‘Very Strong’ El Niño as Vuli Rains Loom
TMA forecasts above-normal to normal rainfall in the northern coast, north-eastern highlands, Lake Victoria basin and northern Kigoma, with risks to crops, infrastructure, health services and transport from flooding, water contamination and disease outbreaks.
Four stages, not one allocation
At a September 2 press conference, Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office Prof Palamagamba Kabudi said the plan has four stages: preparedness, prevention and mitigation, response, and recovery. The sequence covers action before, during and after severe weather.
Early measures include risk mapping, resource mobilisation, drainage and infrastructure work, and disease prevention. Response would cover rescue, food, shelter and humanitarian aid; recovery would restore homes, roads and essential services.
| Funding figure | What the government says it represents |
|---|---|
| Sh730 billion | The estimated cost of all four stages if the country reaches a major response and recovery phase, including reconstruction after significant damage. |
| Sh10 billion | The allocation in the 2026/27 government budget for implementing plan activities across sectors. |
| More than Sh320 billion a month | The amount Prime Minister Mwigulu Nchemba said is now transferred directly to road funds after legal changes. It is not identified as El Niño-specific funding. |
Kabudi said the Sh730 billion should not be understood as money already allocated or spent. Rather, it is a projection of the resources that could be required if heavy rains cause extensive damage.
READ MORE: El Niño-induced Heavy Rains Leave 155 People Dead in Tanzania
If response and recovery are not needed at that scale, he said, actual expenditure would be lower. Ministries, agencies, local authorities, development partners, civil society, the private sector and communities are expected to contribute through their mandates and existing budgets.
The distinction has become the central online discussion around preparedness. Posts circulating the Sh730 billion figure presented it as a fund set aside for El Niño, prompting Kabudi to say that such accounts lacked the plan’s full context.
The debate now turns on the difference between a worst-case, multi-sector estimate and the Sh10 billion identified in the current budget, rather than on whether an official plan exists.
The directives include identifying dangerous sites, relocation where necessary, temporary shelters, rescue equipment, drainage and disease prevention. Households are urged to follow TMA information, keep food reserves and use safer cultivation methods and suitable Vuli seeds.
Prime Minister Mwigulu had earlier directed TANROADS and TARURA to inspect roads, bridges, culverts and drainage in flood-prone areas. The regions listed for intensified preparedness include Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Simiyu, Kigoma, Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Pwani, Morogoro, Mara, Arusha, Kilimanjaro and Manyara.
Beyond central government
TMA is providing the technical basis for the response. It has said it is producing localised forecasts for 86 districts in Vuli-rainfall areas and has urged sector institutions to turn weather information into their own preparedness decisions. Its advice includes water harvesting, stronger infrastructure, early warning and control of mosquito breeding sites.
READ MORE: Welcome to Tanzania, Where El Kura Is More Important Than El Niño
In Zanzibar, the Disaster Management Commission says it has a three-level emergency response plan. In Urban West, it has identified 75 at-risk shehias, temporary shelters and emergency centres, and is running awareness efforts alongside drainage clearance, as reported by The Citizen newspaper.
It has also identified 105 Stone Town buildings in risky condition, including 27 requiring urgent measures, while residents in high-risk locations are being urged to relocate voluntarily.
The media are also being drawn into preparedness efforts. At a recent Zanzibar training, journalists were urged to explain forecasts, high-risk maps and evacuation information in accessible language.
Regionally, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has included Tanzania in its August Eastern Africa preparedness alert. It calls for anticipatory action and flexible financing to pre-position support ahead of potential flooding, disease and displacement, but it does not announce a separate Tanzania operation.
The forecast recalls the 2023 to 2024 El Niño emergency, when floods and landslides killed at least 155 people and affected more than 200,000, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
