Dodoma — The Tanzania Meteorological Authority has extended its seasonal outlook to much of the country’s western, central, southern and south-western regions, warning that a strong El Niño is likely to bring the heaviest rains between November 2026 and January 2027.
In its October 23 forecast, TMA said the November 2026 to April 2027 rainy season would bring above-normal to normal rainfall to Kigoma, Tabora, Katavi, Singida, Dodoma, Rukwa, Songwe, Mbeya, Iringa, Njombe and southern Morogoro. Lindi, Mtwara and Ruvuma are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
“We expect more rainfall in the first half of the season, from November 2026 to January 2027, than in the second half,” TMA Director General Ladislaus Chang’a told journalists in the capital, Dodoma, adding that El Niño will significantly influence the seasonal pattern through at least February 2027.
The outlook covers areas with one main annual rainy season, unlike the earlier Vuli forecast for the October to December short rains in northern and eastern parts of the country. It therefore adds to, rather than replaces, the August warning for the northern coast, north-eastern highlands, Lake Victoria basin and northern Kigoma.
TMA said rain recorded on October 22 and 23 had already exceeded October monthly averages at some stations. Bukoba recorded more than 171 millimetres against a monthly average of 165mm, while Tabora received 51mm against an October average of 26mm and Shinyanga received 47mm against 33mm.
READ MORE: TMA Raises Alarm Over ‘Very Strong’ El Niño as Vuli Rains Loom
The Authority said rains should start in the fourth week of October in parts of Tabora, Katavi, Kigoma, Lindi and Mtwara, before spreading in November. In most of the newly covered regions, the season is expected to end between the third and fourth weeks of April 2027.
The forecast does not mean every locality will experience the same rainfall or impacts, the agency warned. TMA said it will issue localised outlooks for 63 districts in the unimodal zone, alongside daily and five-day updates, which it says should guide decisions at local level.
TMA’s sector advice identifies possible flooding and waterlogging, crop losses and disease, disruption to roads, railways, ports and air travel, and damage to water, energy and mining infrastructure.
It asked local authorities to improve drainage, communities to reduce mosquito-breeding sites, and farmers, transport operators and other sectors to use shorter-term forecasts alongside the seasonal outlook.
The warning arrives after the government said in September that it had activated a four-stage National Emergency Plan for El Niño, covering preparedness, prevention and mitigation, response, and recovery. The plan’s estimated worst-case cost was Sh730 billion, while Sh10 billion had been identified in the 2026/27 budget for plan activities.
READ MORE: Inside Tanzania’s El Niño Emergency Plan
The Prime Minister’s Office said on October 22 that it was training the National Emergency Response Team on rapid assessment, resource needs and coordination through the Emergency Operations and Communication Centre.
TMA’s assessment is consistent with the wider regional picture. The World Meteorological Organisation says El Niño is strengthening and is very likely to continue through February, while ICPAC forecasts wetter-than-normal October to December conditions across the Greater Horn of Africa, including parts of western Tanzan
