In 2024, I anticipate a continuation of the trend where the powerful wield their influence without constraints, deliberately abusing their power. In turn the less powerful will have no choice but to adopt new or intensify emerging ideological underpinnings, all in a bid to survive and stand up to the powerful.

This setup will divide, but ironically unite the world in different ideological fragments and no, this will not be along the lines of socialism, communism vs capitalism. 

Media will continue to radicalize citizens in several developed nations over migrants and weaponize race, this will lead to the rise and solidification of leaders who are more inward, on a global scale this will also be an opportunity for new powers outside Europe and North America and solidify other superpowers like China.

Furthermore, the global political elites will continue to push their power over the will of the masses, making people feel ‘useless’ over their own country affairs. This is my perspective of the world in 2024. I am sharing my analysis here, for you to be able to dissect my bias, and agree or disagree with me.

2023 ends with a lack of restraints

The end of 2023 has come with a new realization, especially for many of us in the global south. We witnessed the world superpower, the United States deploying its full might against the helpless Palestinians in Gaza. This is through its carte blanche on weapon supply and unreasonable vetoing of resolutions that support Palestinians lives.

I understand some people in the West have found a way of explaining to themselves these things, but for the majority of other people especially in the global south we can hardly understand or accept the reasoning.

The intolerable double standard concerning empathy for humanity and adherence to international laws and order is persistently undermining the soft power of the United States.

 This soft power has long been developed through its positioning as a nation that cares for morality and what is right and deliberate constraints on its influence. With the lack of constraints, double standards, and trampling over international laws, many nations now view the U.S. through a different lens, altering the perception of its global persona.

The Messiness in its politics, with Congress and Senate failing to analyze the world beyond personal egos, has crippled its ability to reflect adequately on the prevailing global mood.

As the soft power wielded by the United States diminishes, the country is poised to encounter new challenges and frustrations in its engagements with other nations. Noticing the lack of restraints, the temptation to coerce or use force over other nations will increase over time.

With enough force and economic tools to subdue nations, smaller nations that value sovereignty will have no choice but to adopt ideological positions, this is to prepare their citizens against foreseeable difficulties. China will be seen as a reasonable alternative, and platforms like BRIC will gain more ground.

The People, media and social media

In one of his arguments, controversial historian, Yuval Noah Harari claims that in the future the masses will be useless, that with the rise of new technologies, political elites will need few operators to control technologies essential for subduing the masses, in turn rendering the masses useless.

I think his assertion will hold true if at a certain point in time the population of psychopaths outnumbers other sensible people. But anyway, let’s explore this argument in analyzing the behavior of some political elites. The rise of unreasonable elites, with arrays of tools to control people,  has forced the masses in various parts of the world to feel useless, especially when it comes to holding their rulers to account. 

With some populations feeling cornered, in 2024 we might see more pushback from the masses, especially in areas where the masses are used to democracy but are witnessing an unprecedented decline of democratic practices such as the UK, US, Germany, and France.

In 2023, a collective alarming departure from journalistic standards was witnessed in Western media, which holds a wider global reach and trust than any other media outlets. This trend has not only sparked numerous questions but has also contributed to a decline in trust, particularly among audiences in the global south.

With eyebrows raised at media like BBC and CNN, in Africa, I anticipate increased penetration and investment by other media with an interest in selling certain narratives.  Some of them have already started to invest and expand their presence in Africa including RT International and TRT World.

In another spectrum, in  2023 we have seen the power of social media in connecting the world; from competitions to win-over Tiktok influencers , to the new X. Moreover, we have learned the power that social media owners have placed upon themselves over humanity’s thoughts, speech, and a way of life.

We have seen community guidelines in places like Instagram being bent and changed to the extent of being unrecognizable, raising questions if they are actual guidelines or foreign policy tools. And we have Tiktok, whose popularity has continued to become a nuisance to some political elites.

Having learned and tested the power they control, without any reasonable pushback, we will witness more manipulation from owners of social media platforms in regulating how the world thinks, this will have a chilling ideological effect across the world.

 First, it will set a precedent for dictators and other authoritarians, they will ask to also be part of the manipulation clique. In the US more people will demand the First Amendment which among other things protects speech in public spaces to also be applicable on social media, this will not happen or take shape due to the relation that big tech has with the US politicians.

China will become more prominent than it acts to be at the moment in preserving Tiktok interests; Tiktok’s enthusiasm for integrating itself in the US financial and business structures will flatline, but this will not be for lack of trying.

Outside the US, there will be new ideas for establishing or promoting alternative platforms that take into account voices from the global south.

Spineless Africa Isn’t Good for Anyone

In 2023, we witnessed several coups across Africa, but also the continent entered 2024 with several conflicts in Sudan, Congo, and many more places.

In a bid to claim legitimacy, we have seen leaders who have ascended to power through coups , often build their images through anti-western, anti-imperialist rhetoric. 

This has won them some prominence among the African population, especially youth and this is not necessarily good news. Unless other democratic leaders in Africa start to stand up unequivocally for the continent, coups and strong men governance in Africa will intensify.

Spineless Africa isn’t good for anyone, in a wave of new ideological inclination, Africa needs its position, a firm position or risk be swayed in any small wave that comes.

Tony Alfred K is a political analyst based in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. He can be reached at tonyalfredk@gmail.com and on Twitter at @tonyalfredk. These are the writer’s own opinions, and they do not necessarily reflect the viewpoint of The Chanzo Initiative. Do you want to publish in this space? Contact our editor at editor@thechanzo.com.