A critical review of Tanzania’s Development Vision (TDV) 2050 points to risks to its success where previous development policies have failed. It is worth noting that Tanzania has consistently missed development targets since independence, despite various policy approaches.
The current vision acknowledges key issues including persistent poverty, the dominance of the informal economy, and the failure to process raw materials like cashews as some of the main bottlenecks for economic transformation in the country.
Vision 2050 sets the ambitious target of turning Tanzania into a trillion-dollar economy from the current baseline of US$86 billion driven primarily by the private sector and Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), with the government transitioning to an enabler of business.
The first pillar
The first pillar of the vision targets a strong, inclusive and competitive economy built on macroeconomic stability and predictability, fiscal sustainability, innovative and diversified financing. It identifies as key drivers of this economy an enabling business and investment environment, efficient state-owned enterprises, a vibrant private sector and strategic regional and global opportunities.
It is important to point out that Tanzania is far from being a truly market-driven economy, with a proliferation of state-owned enterprises and regulatory bodies. It is also important to question the effectiveness of Foreign Direct Investment in priority sectors like mining, which has historically led to exclusion of Tanzanians in participating in their own economy, inequality and limited job creation.
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When the state has engaged in real estate, it is often linked to speculative investments and rent-seeking. Equally critical is the failure to implement agricultural policy goals, such as modernisation and commercialisation which is partly due to collaboration between officials and business interests to compromise stated policy objectives.
It is imperative that the policy conditions promote transparency and accountability among key actors in ways that reinforce trust between the state, the market and society towards the shared objective of a truly competitive and inclusive economy.
The second pillar
The second pillar, on Human Capabilities and Social Development, aims to enhance human capital and create an inclusive, healthy society through education, health, social protection, housing, workforce development, and social cohesion. While the aspirations are commendable, the plan lacks specifics on how to overcome challenges, particularly Tanzania’s rapidly growing population, which exacerbates issues across all subsections.
It is worth noting the contradictions with the current administration’s policies, such as the failure to prevent pregnant girls from being expelled from school as provided for under the 2002 Education Regulations despite pledges for sexual and reproductive health education.
Notwithstanding, there is considerable room to build on some of the registered advancements achieved including the increased availability of essential health commodities, strategic investments in water infrastructure facilitated by the Tanzania Water Investment Programme (TanWIP), and concerted efforts to improve the labour force through the establishment of Special Economic Zones and vocational training initiatives.
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To realise the full potential of such gains would require concerted efforts by both the state and non-state actors to mobilise resources towards addressing the most pressing social development problems of our time. Running a successful social protection sector whether via universal health care or national health insurance requires transparency from the state if citizens are to trust and invest in them.
TDV 2050 acknowledges how communities are making significant investment in building social safety nets but it fails to acknowledge how the success of these is based on the significant mutual trust built between their memberships and communities.
A 2014 study identified the lack of fairness, competence and neutrality of governance players as contributing to citizens not trusting in public parastatals in Tanzania, which could significantly hamper attempts to build a viable social protection economy.
The third pillar
The third pillar on Environmental Integrity and Climate Change Resilience acknowledges Tanzania’s susceptibility to climate change and delineates ambitious environmental objectives across five domains: biodiversity, wetlands and water resources, environmental pollution, land management, and climate change resilience.
Nevertheless, these aspirations are undermined by the underlying extractivist economic ambitions, particularly the rapid expansion of fossil fuel extraction, mining, and large-scale industrial agriculture.
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The stated emphasis on increasing “high value market-oriented produce” in agriculture carries risks of long-term soil degradation and compromises food sovereignty. Reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an economic catalyst, despite being presented as a “bridge fuel,” risks entrenching further dependence on fossil fuels while posing risks of environmental degradation.
The absence of a clear commitment to a Just Energy Transition in the plan is a significant omission that undermines the credibility of the Vision’s climate commitments. Achieving the ambitions set out in the third pillar of the vision, it is necessary to address inherent tensions between economic growth and sustainability.
As such, its transformative potential will hinge upon the navigation and resolution of these contradictions during implementation.
Beyond the three pillars, it is critical to reflect on the current governance and political atmosphere which make achieving significant change under Vision 2050 unlikely.
Reforms needed
Achieving the enormous public and private investment targets to propel the country’s economic growth to the desired 10 per cent annually requires vivid reforms of the investment environment as well evident independence of key governance institutions, including the judiciary.
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Ranking 96th out of 142 countries globally and 11th out of 34 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania requires considerable investment in key institutions of accountability. according to the World Justice Project. The anticipated rapid expansion of social services as articulated under Pillar 2 would be hard to achieve in the absence of strong local government authorities that have the capacity to raise their own revenue towards strategic investment.
It would also require massive improvement in social accountability which thrives in an environment where there is notable freedom of expression to allow citizens to claim accountability for delivering results at the local level.
TDV 2050 recognises a declining freedom of expression in Tanzania but falls short of outlining the key measures to reinstate and guarantee such freedom, noting that: “‘Freedom of expression remains constrained and has yet to meet societal expectations. The media space is limited, and professional and structural issues hinder open discourse.’ ‘Although the government has undertaken various efforts, corruption remains a persistent barrier hindering the realisation of social justice and inclusive development.”
Untangling this constrained environment is key to unleashing the potential outlined in the vision.
Public accountability
Ultimately, success in implementing the vision rests on robust public accountability. At one time, Tanzania had a robust infrastructure for such accountability through the Public Expenditure Review which brought together government, civil society, private sector and development practitioners to take stock of progress, identify bottlenecks and deliberate on pathways for improved development outcomes under the aegis of Vision 2025.
Similar arrangements can certainly be replicated in the context of TDV 2050 and civil society stands a unique opportunity to self-organise towards such a public accountability forum for the implementation of TDV 2050.
Doing so, however, would require a relatively free and open research environment to allow for independent monitoring and verification of reported development outcomes so non-state actors contribute meaningfully to such a process.
Writing the vision is a good first step but realising its ambitious goals requires an unrelenting commitment to accountability and honest dialogue about the dire state of governance currently prevalent in Tanzania.
Martin Hockey is an International Law and Human Rights fellow at Center for Strategic Litigation. He’s available at marty@strategiclawcentre.org.
Benjamin Foster is a Climate Justice Fellow under the Queen Elizabeth Scholars Fellowship 2025 at the Transnational Justice Clinic at McGill University currently hosted at the Center for Strategic Litigation. He’s available at ben@strategiclawcentre.org.
Brian Cooksey is a renowned governance and development advisor who currently serves as Research Advisor at Center for Strategic Litigation. He’s available brian@strategiclawcentre.org.
Deus Valentine Rweyemamu is the Chief Executive Officer of the Center for Strategic Litigation. He’s available at deus@strategiclawcentre.org.
The opinions expressed here are the writers’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Chanzo. If you are interested in publishing in this space, please contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com.
One Response
The articke provides a critical review of the vision 2050.
Failure to inckude a a Just Energy Transitikn in the Vision with focus on Clean Cooking is a serious omission. This is a strategic policy championed by the President Herself
Last it would have prudent enough to include a fourth pillar on Good Governance and Accountability
I submit