Dar es Salaam – A former Tanzanian prime minister has questioned the official narrative surrounding the deadly post-election violence that erupted in Tanzania on October 29, 2025, suggesting the force used by security organs was disproportionate and that the country is dangerously divided.
The comments from Joseph Sinde Warioba, a widely respected elder statesman, come just days after he held a private meeting with President Samia Suluhu Hassan at the State House in Dar es Salaam on December 17.
In a wide-ranging interview with veteran journalist Manyerere Jackton for the weekly newspaper Jamhuri, Judge Warioba broke a long silence on the state of the nation, offering a stark analysis of the events that the government has labelled an “insurrection” but which he suggests were a tragic symptom of deeper political problems.
He argued that the number of citizens killed during the unrest, which followed a contentious general election, was alarmingly high and demanded a re-evaluation of the security response.
“When you look at the figures being talked about, the number of those killed is greater than those who died in the Kagera War,” Warioba stated, drawing a startling comparison to the 1978-79 conflict with Uganda. “In that war, we were killed by an enemy. Here, we are killing ourselves.”
The Kagera War, known in Tanzania as Vita ya Kagera, was fought from October 1978 to June 1979 after Ugandan forces under dictator Idi Amin invaded and occupied the Kagera Salient in northern Tanzania. During the invasion, the Ugandan army killed approximately 1,500 Tanzanian civilians. The ensuing conflict, which resulted in the overthrow of Amin, saw 373 Tanzanian soldiers lose their lives.
He questioned the preparedness of the security forces, which, on January 22, 2024, received a presidential directive to “prepare” for the exercise. “We have to ask ourselves, how did they prepare? Did they prepare with guns and bullets, because that is what they used most?” Warioba remarked. He argued that a true assessment of whether the force used was justified could only be made once the government released the official number of casualties, a figure it has so far withheld.
Refusal
The government’s refusal to provide a death toll has been a major point of contention. Prime Minister Mwigulu Nchemba has dismissed the circulating figures, which range from 3,000 to as high as 10,000, accusing those compiling them of “trading with the lives of Tanzanians” for monetary gain.
In a later address on December 18, Nchemba specifically disputed the 10,000 figure, questioning how such a large number of deaths could go unnoticed and arguing that “you can hide bodies, but you cannot hide people grieving.” The government has instead framed the events as “economic sabotage” and maintains that releasing casualty figures would be disrespectful to grieving families.
President Samia has firmly defended the actions of the security forces. In a speech to elders in Dar es Salaam on December 2, she characterised the events not as peaceful demonstrations but as “organised riots with specific purposes,” which she said included attacking police stations to seize weapons and burning public and private property.
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“In such a situation, the force used corresponds to the incident at hand,” she stated, asking rhetorically what lesser force could have been applied against what she termed a “mob” attempting a coup.
A divided nation
Warioba expressed deep concern over the politicisation of the country’s security organs. He recounted a personal story from September 2024, when two traffic police officers stopped his car to express their distress over political divisions within the force.
“They told me, ‘Sir, we are grateful for seeing you. We ask for your help, you elders. All this time, we have been working without discrimination based on religion or tribe, but now politics has divided us. It has divided us a lot. We are working in a very difficult environment. We ask you to help so that the situation returns to how it was before.’”
This incident, he said, terrified him and confirmed his long-held fears, which he had voiced as early as December 2024, that involving security organs in politics would lead to “problems.” He believes the government has contributed significantly to the current tensions by dismissing any dissenting views as “misinformation” instead of engaging with the substance of the arguments.
“The government has contributed a lot to this situation,” Warioba told Jamhuri. “The language being used now is not one that unites people. It is as if the leaders have abandoned persuasion and left the police to rule. It’s as if the police are now in charge.”
The October 29 unrest
The protests on October 29 were the largest in the nation’s history, sparked by what activists called a decline in multiparty democracy, a non-competitive election, and a series of abductions.
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The largely youth-led demonstrations, which had gained momentum on social media platforms like TikTok, quickly escalated. Protesters burned government properties, fuel stations, and businesses linked to the ruling party.
In response, the government imposed a curfew and a near-total internet shutdown that lasted for days. The military was deployed onto the streets of major cities, and reports emerged of widespread arrests and casualties, with many victims being onlookers caught in the crossfire.
On November 1, the National Independent Electoral Commission declared President Samia the winner with an unprecedented 97.6 per cent of the vote. In the aftermath, on November 20, she launched a Commission of Inquiry to investigate the “calamity.”
The commission’s mandate includes identifying the root cause of the unrest, the role of opposition parties and NGOs, and the methods used by security forces to quell the riots. The move was met with scepticism by opposition figures, who have called for an independent international inquiry.
Significant intervention
Warioba’s intervention is significant. Warioba’s intervention is significant. As a former Prime Minister, judge, and head of the influential Presidential Commission Against Corruption in the 1990s (popularly known as the Warioba Commission), he holds considerable moral authority in the country.
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His decision to speak out so forcefully, and so soon after meeting the President, suggests a deep-seated concern for the nation’s future and a belief that a different path is needed to heal the divisions.
“We must tell each other the truth,” he urged. “We citizens have our weaknesses; we are afraid to speak the truth. We are absolutely afraid to tell people the truth.”
Born on September 3, 1940, Warioba is a lawyer, politician, and respected judge known for his contributions to law and good governance in Tanzania and internationally. He served as Prime Minister and First Vice President of the United Republic of Tanzania from 1985 to 1990.
Following his tenure, he served as a judge on the Hamburg-based International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea from 1996 to 1999. In 1996, President Benjamin Mkapa appointed him chairman of the pivotal Presidential Commission Against Government Corruption, better known as the Warioba Commission.
He has also led international election observation missions, including for the Commonwealth in Nigeria in 2007, and has served as the Chancellor of Sokoine University of Agriculture since 2016, remaining an influential voice in public life.
