Tanzania approaches its October 2025 general elections amidst a charged political climate. The opposition party, Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), led by its vocal chairperson Tundu Lissu, has escalated its “No Reforms, No Elections” campaign, demanding a new constitution and an independent electoral commission.
This bold stance has placed Lissu in legal jeopardy, facing treason charges that have sparked debates about democracy, electoral fairness, and the boundaries of dissent. This feature explores CHADEMA’s campaign motivations, the nature of treason charges, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi’s (CCM) role, the impact on free elections, and what these incidents reveal about Tanzania’s democratic maturity.
CHADEMA’s campaign, which gained momentum in 2023 and intensified in 2025, reflects deep frustration with Tanzania’s electoral system. The opposition argues that the 1977 constitution concentrates excessive power in the presidency, undermining checks and balances.
They demand a new constitution based on a 2013 review that proposed decentralizing authority and strengthening judicial independence. CHADEMA also seeks to reform the National Electoral Commission (NEC), widely criticized for its ties to the ruling CCM, which opponents claim compromises its impartiality.
For many Tanzanians, especially urban youth, these grievances echo a broader desire for a system that reflects their aspirations for fairness and accountability.
“No Reforms, No Election” campaign’s goals are ambitious. It is meant to pressure the government into enacting reforms that ensure a level playing field and to rally public support for systemic change. By threatening to block elections, CHADEMA aims to expose democratic flaws, potentially drawing scrutiny from international bodies like the African Union.
Risks
Yet, this strategy carries risks. It could alienate voters who see it as disruptive, while inviting state backlash, as evidenced by Lissu’s arrest on treason charges after a rally in Ruvuma on April 9, 2025. The campaign has nonetheless galvanized a segment of the population, raising hopes for reform even as it tests the state’s tolerance.
Treason is a severe charge in Tanzania, punishable by death. The Penal Code defines it as acts to overthrow the government unlawfully or incite rebellion. Prosecutors claim Lissu’s April 03, 2025, remarks at the CHADEMA’s offices in Mikocheni were “treasonous.” Mr Lissu hinted that he was willing to lead a “rebellion” if that was what it should take to bring about the reforms the party was fighting for.
Across East Africa, treason charges often serve as political tools. In Uganda, opposition leader Bobi Wine faced such charges in 2018 for allegedly inciting violence, later dropped amid a global outcry. In Kenya, Miguna Miguna was charged in 2018 for a mock inauguration oath, a move critics called repressive.
These cases highlight how states use treason to silence dissent that questions their legitimacy. Lissu’s charge, tied to his reformist rhetoric, lacks clear evidence of incitement, suggesting an attempt to curb his influence rather than address a genuine threat.
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CCM’s future
CCM, in power since Tanzania’s 1961 independence, dominates the political landscape. President Samia Suluhu Hassan has sought a reformist image, loosening media restrictions and allowing opposition rallies – steps away from John Magufuli’s seeming authoritarian grip.
However, Lissu’s arrest reveals CCM’s reluctance to cede control. Facing a resurgent CHADEMA, CCM appears intent on neutralizing threats before the 2025 elections.
CCM’s influence over state institutions, including the NEC and security forces, is a longstanding grievance. Critics argue this enables electoral manipulation, as seen in disputed 2020 results. By labelling Lissu’s campaign a security risk, CCM seeks to discredit CHADEMA’s demands while rallying its base around stability.
This risks backfiring: Lissu’s arrest has energized opposition supporters and drawn international condemnation, challenging CCM’s reformist narrative. The party’s balancing act – projecting openness while suppressing dissent – underscores its determination to maintain power, even at the cost of democratic credibility.
Lissu’s arrest clouds the outlook for Tanzania’s 2025 elections. Free and fair elections demand equal campaigning opportunities, an impartial electoral body, and freedom from intimidation.
The treason charges, alongside police disruptions of CHADEMA rallies, signal a clampdown that could suppress opposition efforts and deter voters. If Lissu remains detained, CHADEMA’s ability to mobilize may falter, tilting the scales toward CCM.
Public distrust in the NEC, fueled by past irregularities like the 2020 elections, is a growing concern. Without reforms, scepticism could undermine the 2025 results’ legitimacy, risking protests or an opposition boycott that fragments its impact. The charges against Lissu amplify fears that the state prioritizes control over democratic openness.
Police justify disrupting CHADEMA rallies by citing risks of unrest, pointing to Lissu’s provocative rhetoric. Yet, international standards require states to tolerate dissent unless it directly incites violence. Lissu’s speeches, focused on reform, fall short of such a threshold, suggesting police actions were excessive.
This mirrors 2020, when police restricted opposition rallies under COVID-19 pretexts, while CCM campaigned freely. Selective enforcement against CHADEMA shrinks democratic space, raising questions about the state’s commitment to pluralism.
Clashes
Tanzania’s democracy, once a regional model, is under scrutiny. Political discourse reveals a clash between CCM’s centralized control and CHADEMA’s push for pluralism.
READ MORE: How CHADEMA Aims to Block Tanzania’s 2025 Elections Without Electoral Reforms
Incidents like Lissu’s arrest, alongside reported maimings, disappearances and charges against dissenting or critical voices of the status quo, seen as unfounded, erode trust in institutions, stunting democratic growth. They foster fear, discourage participation, and polarise society, undermining the inclusive debate democracy requires.
If unchecked, these tactics could lead to democratic erosion. Suppressed dissent risks unrest, as seen in Uganda, where state repression fueled protests. A legitimacy crisis post-2025 elections could weaken governance, deter investment, and alienate youth demanding change.
Tanzania’s stability, an East African asset, depends on reform. Addressing opposition demands and protecting rights is crucial to building a mature democracy that balances order with openness, ensuring a future where all voices shape the nation’s path.
Evans Rubara is a Tanzania-based natural resource management specialist. He is available at erubara@outlook.com or on X as @ThePunditsFolly. These are the writer’s own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of The Chanzo. Do you want to publish in this space? Contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com for further inquiries.
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