Tanzania’s post-election landscape has taken an increasingly volatile and deeply polarised turn. What began as a disputed October vote with major opposition figures barred or detained, escalated into nationwide protests met by a forceful security response.
Authorities imposed an internet blackout and curfews as unrest spread, and in the weeks that followed, prosecutors filed mass treason charges against more than 2,000 people, according to the Minister of Justice, with many reported to be below the age of 18.
What should have been a moment of joy in celebrating a democratic opportunity for the nation’s young people turned into a moment ofcondemnation for allegedly having taken part in or instigated the demonstrations surrounding the polls. The scale of thestate response has triggered backlash from theinternational andregional community, as well asnationals, in what is by far the most severe political and human rights crisis in the nation’s history.
For the first time on record, both theAfrican Union andSADC expressed grave concern that the elections fell short of the regional standards governing democratic elections among member states.
The AU EOM Statement went further to urge critical actions to address the human rights and political crisis underpinning the elections, including the enforced disappearance of critics, non-enforcement of regional and national court decisions and impunity in the conduct of elections. The Human Rights chief of theUnited Nations and the Tanzania Episcopal Council (TEC) havecalled for an independent investigation into the killings that clouded the election protests.
Amid the pressure from international, regional and local voices, President Samia Suluhu Hassan has established aPresidential Commission of Inquiry in accordance with theCommissions of Inquiry Act, Cap 32. The independence of the proposed commission remains in doubt due to both its composition and the manner of its appointment.
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By design, the commission is a creature of the President, and under the law, it is mandated to report and recommend to the President and not necessarily the public. This implies that the President holds ultimate discretion over the conduct and outcome of the commission.
It remains to be seen, therefore, the extent to which the commission will be allowed discretion to inquire into the conduct of those in the President’s circle as part of the inquiry.
Its composition of mostly retired civil servants, including some from the very security agencies accused of deploying disproportionate power to quell the unrest and, in some cases, criminal activity, also further dampens the perception of the independence of the commission. By and large, the failure to engage in meaningful dialogue prior to the elections significantly limits the chances of success in addressing citizens’ grievances.
Holistic approaches
Regional and international transitional justice frameworks such as theAU Transitional Justice Policy and theUN Guidance Note emphasise holistic approaches that confront past abuses through truth-seeking, accountability, reparations, institutional reform, and guarantees of non-recurrence.
These frameworks insist that justice reforms cannot be divorced from broader societal healing and political transformation, making victim-centeredness, gender-sensitivity, inclusivity and structural redress the core components.
When measured against these standards, the terms of reference of the commission suggested limited evidence that the commission will undertake such a comprehensive and in-depth review of the conditions that led the country to the current crisis, including the abuse of the criminal justice system, political, social and economic disenfranchisement of youth and wanton state impunity.
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Observers will be looking to see if reparations for victims or public reckoning with systemic political abuses will be taken into account as part of the commission’s mandate.
In the absence of an effective national transitional justice framework and in the volatile political and social context in which those at the helm of the very agencies accused of the violence remain in office, it remains to be seen how far the commission will go.
Citizens’ participation
The largely intimidating political climate that underpinned the election period is likely to hamper citizens’ participation in the inquiry. As such, the commission will need to make considerable efforts to earn the public’s trust if the inquiry is to succeed.
Why no one has so far taken responsibility, why politically motivated charges and cases haven’t been withdrawn, why enforced disappearances and abductions have not stopped and why no acknowledgement has so far been made by the state of the crimes against humanity will linger on the commission until some answers are found.
So far, acts, omissions and pronouncements by both the President and the Prime Minister may have hampered the independence of the commission. This includes the President’s remarks while addressing parliament,instructing the National Prosecution Service to release individuals arrested during the electoral crackdown.
While the National Prosecution Service is constitutionally and legally mandated to operate independently under Section 4(1) of the National Prosecution Service Act and Article 59B(4) of the Tanzanian Constitution, the president’s intervention puts a dent in its independence.
On the other hand, the Prime Minister’s repeated unfounded allegations of the involvement of foreign actors and financial inducement have not done much to secure the commission’s independence.
Accountability
At the heart of the ongoing public discontent is accountability for crimes committed in the lead-up to, during and post the election. Equally important, our ability or lack thereof to embrace pluralistic and inclusive politics, 33 years after introducing multipartyism, has contributed greatly to our current debacle.
Not acknowledging this reality will likely stymie any effort at reconciliation. Thestate response so far, including the conduct of the police in the lead-up to the now botched December 9 protests, points to a state that has refused to engage in dialogue with the nation. As such, the grievances can not be wished away, and they will remain until such time as the state is prepared to confront the issues at hand with humility.
A continued crackdown comes with costs, as has already beenobserved. Internet shutdowns and curfews have disrupted commerce, media reporting and communication, contributing to declining investor confidence and worsening the country’s economic climate.
The EU Parliament’sobjection to the €156 million funding package for Tanzania, citing democratic backsliding, has further intensified economic concerns and will likely trigger a ripple effect among other donors. According to one analysis, the politicalunrest hascost Tanzania US$238 due to internet shutdowns.
Concerted efforts needed
Rebuilding and restoring Tanzania will require concerted efforts by local actors powered by solidarity from international peers. The international community must realise that Tanzania arrived at the current crisis courtesy of both its complicity and its patronizing as the signs have been on the wall of the simmering crisis for quite a while.
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What ended up happening in October was, by all means, an electoral coup owing to the criminal conduct of Justice Jacobs Mwambegele and his commission, which would qualify as treasonous in a civilised democracy.
To have declared presidential, parliamentary and councillor election results in the absence of any evidence of vote counting is an insult to the intellect of well-meaning Tanzanians and an abdication of the integrity normally bestowed on members of the bench.
To restore trust, our whole governance operating system will have to be upgraded to fit the requirements of Gen Z while fixing the bug of impunity that has hit a nerve in our society.
Before any commission of inquiry succeeds, deliberate measures must be taken to build trust, allow for expressive freedoms and safeguard basic liberties. An inquiry undertaken in an environment of fear is only likely to reinforce the very conditions that led to its constitution in the first place. Tanzania remains at a crossroads as our actions and inactions determine where we go from here.
Angela Nyakato is a lawyer working as a graduate trainee at the Centre for Strategic Litigation (CSL). She is available at angela@strategiclawcentre.org or on X as @NyakatoAngela. Deus Valentine Rweyemamu is the Chief Executive Officer of CSL. He’s available at deus@strategiclawcentre.org and on X as @DeusValentine. The opinions expressed here are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Chanzo. If you are interested in publishing in this space, please contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com.
