US President Donald Trump has renewed efforts to end Russia’s bloody war against Ukraine after earlier US-mediated rounds produced little progress. This time, though, Ukraine’s fatigue may be part of the motivation, as the country appears to be running out of steam amid overstretched resources and uncertainty over support from partners.
One thing about wars of attrition is that the resource-strained side takes slow, bitter punishment until it can fight no longer. I have always followed this brutal, sad invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and read many sarcastic views thrown at Ukraine and its Western supporters.
The famous online jibe is that the West is pushing Ukraine to “fight to the last Ukrainian.” As terrible as it sounds, it reflects the massive loss of life a much smaller Ukraine is experiencing at the hands of a powerful, nuclear-armed state in Moscow.
As Russia intensifies military pressure and Ukraine’s resources come under growing strain, President Trump’s push for negotiations may reflect strategic realism rather than political impatience. Whatever may be in there, business-wise, I like the fact that if he ends the war, he will have saved lives that attritional fighting continues to consume on both sides.
Nearly five years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, a difficult strategic reality is emerging. Despite extraordinary Ukrainian resistance and substantial Western support, Russia’s strategy of attrition appears increasingly to be testing Kyiv’s military, economic and demographic endurance.
Russia tightens
President Trump’s renewed pressure for negotiations reflects an uncomfortable calculation: prolonging the conflict does not necessarily strengthen Ukraine’s bargaining position. It has brought further territorial losses, mounting casualties and widespread destruction; the earlier it ends, the better.
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Recent Russian strikes against energy infrastructure, industrial facilities, transport networks and major cities, including Kyiv, suggest an intensification of Moscow’s campaign to undermine Ukraine’s ability to sustain the war. More consequential has been the battle for Ukraine’s fortified defensive belt in the Donbas.
After the earlier capture of Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Kostiantynivka—part of the defensive belt that includes Kramatorsk and Sloviansk—has come under sustained Russian pressure.
There are disputed claims about its fate: Moscow says the city has fallen, while Kyiv says its forces remain in control; the latest ISW assessment says Russian forces have advanced and infiltrated extensively, but Ukrainian units still hold positions there.
The eventual fall of these fortresses could simplify Russia’s drive to complete its capture of the Donbas and advance westward. More delays to a peace deal could mean more territorial losses, more deaths and a more uncertain future for a sovereign Ukraine.
Equally concerning are reports that Russian forces are preparing to resume mechanised attacks in the south after a pause. Russia is also pressing in Kharkiv, while Ukrainian officials warn that shelling around Kherson could intensify; there is no confirmed evidence, however, of a coordinated simultaneous ground offensive in both regions.
Holding back?
Should Russian offensives widen, they could force Ukraine to redistribute already stretched reserves and weaken other defensive sectors. That would complete the essence of attrition: gradually exhausting an opponent until maintaining the entire front becomes increasingly difficult.
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One striking feature of this conflict is Russia’s continued participation in international military exercises, joint naval and aerial missions, and the production and refurbishment of weapons systems despite enormous battlefield commitments.
Putin has said Russian military goods were supplied to more than 30 countries in 2025, generating over US$15 billion in foreign-exchange earnings—a Russian government claim—while Russian forces have joined international drills.
New or refurbished tanks and armoured vehicles have also been identified at storage bases across Russia. While these activities do not prove unlimited resources, they challenge assumptions that Moscow is approaching complete military exhaustion.
I have long questioned whether the term “full-scale invasion” adequately captures the extent of Russia’s military commitment in Ukraine. The invasion was unquestionably massive, but Moscow has seemingly not committed every available capability to Ukraine.
It has maintained strategic forces and other capabilities outside the Ukrainian theatre, possibly mindful of a wider confrontation with NATO.
Geopolitical analyst Alexander Mercouris, whose commentary features prominently on The Duran, has consistently interpreted the conflict through Russia’s capacity to sustain military pressure and the West’s diminishing ability to alter battlefield realities through diplomacy.
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Professor John Mearsheimer’s realist interpretation similarly emphasises the dangers of prolonged confrontation between Russia and the Western alliance, particularly when the underlying security disputes remain unresolved.
Both perspectives are contestable, but they raise questions deserving serious consideration. What is difficult to question is the massive gap in overall population, resources and industrial capacity between the two countries—and what that gap may mean in unfolding attritional warfare.
Shrinking options
Ukraine’s greatest vulnerability may ultimately be manpower. Years of fighting have depleted experienced, battle-hardened fighters, while mobilisation has become an increasingly difficult call to make.
Reports of forceful recruitment, including allegations that some military-age men have been detained in public places, reveal the strains of sustaining a prolonged conflict. These reported abuses should not be taken to mean that all mobilisation is forceful or that they represent official policy.
Equipment shortages, reliance on Western assistance and uncertainty over future support compound these difficulties. Russia, too, has suffered enormous losses and economic pressures, but its larger population and industrial base may provide greater endurance in a prolonged war.
President Trump’s insistence on negotiations may therefore reflect strategic pragmatism rather than political impatience or an increase in oil demand. Negotiations should not mean capitulation or the end of Ukraine’s sovereignty; any durable settlement requires credible security arrangements and difficult compromises from both sides.
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Had the Minsk agreements been fully implemented, or had the Istanbul negotiations in 2022 produced a viable settlement, Ukraine might today face a very different territorial reality.
Although neither process guaranteed lasting peace, and the terms under discussion carried substantial risks, the subsequent course of the war demonstrates that diplomatic opportunities cannot be assessed in isolation from the costs of delay.
As the balance on the battlefield shifts and Russia’s territorial demands harden, further postponement offers no guarantee of better terms. If Trump’s current push for peace fails, Ukraine could find itself negotiating from an even weaker position.
Ultimately, wars of attrition are decided not merely by courage but by the capacity to replace losses and sustain battlefield operations. Yes, Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience, but heart alone cannot overcome resource imbalance; if the present trajectory continues, Kyiv may discover Trump’s mercy too little, too late.
Festo Mulinda is a political analyst and freelance columnist focusing on international relations and geopolitics. He can be reached at mulindafesto@gmail.com or on X as @fmulinda_III. The opinions expressed here are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Chanzo. If you are interested in publishing in this space, please contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com.
