Vice President Dr Emmanuel Nchimbi stirred public debate recently with a public call for a new constitution. Judging by the tenor of his speech, he almost sounded like an activist rather than the second most powerful person in the country.
His call for constitutional reform attracted attention, with some interpreting it as evidence that a senior CCM leader is finally echoing a long-standing public demand.
Yet the whole episode rings a nagging question in my mind: Is this a genuine break from the establishment, or strategic positioning for a possible presidential bid in 2030?
In the lead-up to the 2025 election, CCM, the ruling party, committed to delivering a new constitution in their election manifesto. The promise was mentioned explicitly, seemingly answering the long-standing public outcry. Yet voices from within the establishment have rarely affirmed their commitment to the matter, and the rhetoric has always been evasive.
Although Dr Nchimbi has maintained a relatively measured tone on various matters of public concern, such a strong call for reform was sudden and unexpected from someone in office. Sitting in Tanzania’s second highest position, most people would expect him to act rather than call on citizens to “fight” for reform.
A sudden change of rhetoric smells more like a public relations exercise than a genuine desire for change.
Political calculation
By distancing himself from the establishment and sounding more like an activist, the Vice President could be clearing a path into the hearts of the public four years before the 2030 presidential race. Whatever the calculation, success is far from guaranteed.
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In Tanzanian politics, particularly within CCM, popularity with the public has never guaranteed success inside the party. The road to the presidency is shaped as much by internal power dynamics as by public opinion. A leader may appear perfectly positioned, only to discover that the decisive contest takes place behind closed doors.
The experience of Edward Lowassa remains the clearest example. For years, he was widely viewed as the frontrunner for the 2015 CCM presidential nomination. His political networks and influence had been built over decades, leading many to believe his nomination was inevitable.
Yet, in a dramatic turn, the party’s National Executive Committee denied him the nomination, ending what had seemed an unstoppable march to the presidency.
The Lowassa decision demonstrated that within CCM, a relatively small group of influential decision-makers can alter political trajectories regardless of broader expectations. He had all the cards — until he didn’t.
Former Prime Minister, senior party figure, probably the most connected individual at the time, and a close ally of the outgoing President — and yet he could not see the finishing line.
Uncertain strategy
Nchimbi may well understand this history. By speaking on an issue that resonates with many Tanzanians whilst remaining firmly within government, he could be attempting to strike a delicate balance: appealing to citizens without appearing disloyal to the party. It is a sophisticated political strategy, if indeed that is what it is. But strategy alone does not overcome institutional realities.
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The internal restructuring and systemic changes within CCM over the past year may make the path to 2030 even less predictable. Power within the party has rarely rested with the broader membership alone.
Internal alliances, timing, and decisions made by a handful of influential figures often prove more consequential than public sentiment. If Nchimbi is positioning himself early, he may also be exposing himself to the same uncertainties that derailed ambitious predecessors.
This is why I remain sceptical of interpreting his constitutional remarks as evidence that he is championing the people’s cause. It is equally plausible that he is advancing his own long-term political interests.
There is nothing inherently unusual about politicians aligning themselves with popular issues as they build future campaigns. The real question is whether this represents conviction or calculation. Only time will reveal which interpretation is correct.
Nchimbi’s intervention may prove to be a masterstroke that strengthens his credentials for 2030. Equally, it could become another reminder that in CCM, presidential ambitions are shaped less by public applause than by the unpredictable calculus of internal party politics.
For now, what appears to be constitutional advocacy may also be the opening move in a much longer political game — one whose outcome no one can confidently predict. The citizens calling for a new constitution may not be the intended audience at all.
Festo Mulinda is a political analyst and freelance columnist focusing on international relations and geopolitics. He can be reached at mulindafesto@gmail.com or on X as @fmulinda_III. The opinions expressed here are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Chanzo. If you are interested in publishing in this space, please contact our editors at editor@thechanzo.com.
